Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“Cooper”25 pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 d. Municipal and related services. (1) Culture outlays are estimated at 1.180 billion rub|es——the sum of wages (0.839 billion rubles), social insurance deductions (0.046 billion rubles), and other current outlays (0.295 billion rubles). The wage bill is derived from employment (0.824 million—Narkhoz 1978, p. 366) and the aver- age wage rate (84.8 rubles per month-—Ibid, p. 372). Social insurance deductions are calculated at 5.5 percent of the wage bill (CIA, GNP I970, p. 52). Other current outlays are assumed to be one-fourth of total current outlays. (2) Municipal services are estimated at 0.628 billion rub1es—the sum of wages (0.450 billion rubles), social insurance deductions (0.021 billion rubles), and other current outlays (0.157 billion rubles). The wage bill is derived from employment (0.397 million) and the average wage rate (94.5 rubles per month). Employment is derived as 13 percent of the employment of the housing-communal economy (3.052 mi11ion—Narkhoz 1978, p. 366). The wage rate is assumed to be equal to that of the total housing-communal sector (Ibid, p. 373). Social insurance deductions are calculated as 4.7 percent of the wage bill (CIA, GNP 1970, p. 54). Other current outlays are assumed to be one-fourth of total current outlays. (3) Civilian police outlays are estimated as 1.761 billion rubles—the sum of wages (1.235 billion rubles), social insurance deductions (0.086 billion rubles), and other current outlays (0.440 billion rubles). The wage bill is derived from employment (0.675 million) and an estimated wage rate (152.5 rubles per month). Employment is estimated to be 67.6 percent of the Narkhoz employment category “other branches of material production" (0.998 million— Narkhoz I978, p. 366). The wage rate is assumed to be 25 percent above the average wage rate of all state workers and employees (122.0 rubles per month—Ibid). This assumption results from the calculation of the implicit wage rate for the forestry and other branches of material production sectors, the two sectors for which wage data are not published in the Narkhoz. This type of calcula- tion is subject to rounding errors, but a study of several years shows that the implicit wage rate is consistently higher than the average for all state workers and employees. Social insurance deductions are assumed to be 7.0 percent of the wage bill. Other current outlays are assumed to be one-fourth of total current outlays. 3.Gross Investment a. Fixed capital. (1) Machinery and equipment is estimated at 26.053 billion rubles: the sum of new fixed investment in machinery and equipment (25.300 billion rubles), changes in warehouse stocks of equipment requiring installation (-0.137 billion rubles), and the acquisition of equipment by budget institutions (0.890 billion rubles). New fixed investment is reported in Narkhoz 1972, (p. 474) as the “equipment, instruments, and inventory,” component of capital investment. This value is said to be in 1969 estimate prices. 139 How those prices compare to 1970 prices is uncertain. The wholesale price index for the output of the machine-building and metalworking branch of industry shows no change in 1970 com- pared with 1969. Western studies have suggested that there is a persistent upward trend in price, but no precise estimates of yearly changes are available. Here it is assumed that there was no change between 1969 estimate prices and 1970 expenditures. The change in warehouse stocks of equipment requiring installa- tion is from CIA, GNP I970, p. 55. The acquisition of equipment by budget-supported institutions is not included in Soviet invest- ment data. This value was estimated by increasing the reported value for outlays by union-republic budgets (0.6506 billion rubles- Gosbyudzhet I972, p. 78) to include outlays from the union budget. In 1970 union-republic budgets financed 73.1 percent of total outlays on edumtion, culture, health, physical culture, science, and administration (Ibid, pp. 33, 34, 60, 69, and 72). It is assumed that this relationship is also true for the acquisition of equipment. (2) Construction and other capital outlays are estimated as the difference between total expenditures on construction and other capital outlays (59.8 billion rubles) and private expenditures on housing construction (1.636 billion rubles—table D-2, item 5,a). Total outlays on construction and other capital outlays are derived as the difference between the gross output of the construction sector (67.6 billion Narkhoz I 978, p. 41) and estimated expenditures on capital repair of structures (7.8 billion rubles—appendix C). (3) Net additions to livestock in the public sector are derived in same manner as in the private sector (table D-1, item 2,c,[21). The calculation is shown below. Valuation of the Net Additions to Public-Sector Livestock Inventories, 1970 (1) (2) Inventory of Animals (thousand head) (3) (4) (5) Net Additions to Livestock Inventories End 1969 End 1970 Thousand Rubles Billion Head Per Rubles Head Cattle 70,173 74,212 4,099 442 1.812 glogs 42,225 50,921 8,696 113 ____1.so4 Sheep and goats 104.138 110,241 6,103 37 0.226 Poultry 230,213 276,192 45,919 is ‘"'6.m“" Total 3.772 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Not linked to a story yet.
FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.