Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“Cooper”25 pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Table D—4 (Continued) Sources to this table (Continued): was assumed that the shares of other (nonlabor) current outlays in total expenditures were the same in both health and physical culture. The estimate resulting from this assumption is that other current expenditures are 36.9 percent of total expenditures. Total expenditures on physical culture are estimated at 1.009 billion rubles, the sum of public-sector outlays (0.061 billion rubles— item 1,c below), the subsidy for recreation (0.501 billion rubles- table D-3, item 4), and household expenditures for passes to resorts and the like (0.447 billion rubles—CIA, GNP I970, p. 42). Other current outlays are 36.9 percent, or 0.372 billion rubles of total expenditures. Of this total, 0.022 billion rubles represent budgetary expenditures. Wages and social security payments in physical culture are then determined as total outlays less other current outlays, or 0.637 billion rubles. This in turn determines wages and social insurance in health as 5.279 billion rubles (5.916 billion rubles in health and physical culture less 0.637 billion rubles in physical culture). Finally, other current outlays from the budget are determined as they were for education. Other current outlays are computed as a percentage of total current outlays for identified republic budgetary expenditures and then multiplied by total budgetary health expen- ditures. The result is an estimate of other current outlays in health and physical culture of 3.106 billion rubles. Subtracting the estimated outlays of physical culture of 0.022 billion rubles pro- duces outlays on health alone of 3.084 billion rubles. c. Physical culture. Public-sector outlays on physical culture are 0.061 billion rubles, the sum of budgetary expenditures (0.047 billion rubles—Narkhoz I970, p. 734) and other expenditures (0.014 billion rubles). V. Cao-Pinna and S. S. Shatalin published a value for 1969 of public-sector outlays of 0.053 billion rubles (Consumption Expenditures in Eastern and Western Europe, New York, Pergamon Press, 1979, p. 116). Budgetary outlays in 1969 were 0.041 billion rubles (Narkhoz I970, p. 734). Assuming the relationship between budgetary and other expenditures in 1969 is the same in 1970, then total outlays in 1970 are: (0.047)x (0.053/0.041) = 0.061 billion rubles. 2. Government Administrative Services a. General agricultural programs. This item is the sum of wages (0.721 billion rubles), social insurance deductions (0.032 billion rubles), and other current outlays (0.251 billion rubles). Wages are derived from employment (0.586 million) and the average wage rate (102.5 rubles per month). Employment is determined as the differ- ence between total state agricultural employment (9.419 million— Narkhoz I978, p. 366) and employment in state farms and other state enterprises (8.833 million—Ibid). The wage rate is determined from the difference in the wage rates for total state agriculture (101.0 rubles per m0nth—Ibid, p. 372) and state farms and other state organizations (100.9 rubles per month—lbid). The following tabulation shows the calculation: Monthly Wages (billion rubles) 0.951 0.891 Employ- Wage ment Rate (million (rubles per people) month) Total state agriculture 9.419 101.0 State farms and other 8.833 100.9 state enterprises General agricultural 0.586 102.5 programs 0.060 Social insurance deductions are derived as 4.4 percent of wages (CIA, GNP 1970, p. 53). Other current outlays are estimated as one- fourth of current outlays, a reduction from the one-third used in CIA, GNP I 970 (p. 53) for government administrative services. The lower share is based on fragmentary evidence that labor costs comprise the vast bulk of outlays on these government services. The share would be lower than in education (31 percent—-item 1,a above) and health (37 percent—item l,b above), where food costs are large. b. Forestry. Total outlays are estimated as 0.636 billion rubles: the sum of wages (0.457 billion rubles), social insurance deductions (0.020 billion rubles), and other current outlays (0.159 billion rubles). Wages are derived from employment (0.433 million— Narkhoz I978, p. 366) and the average wage rate (88 rubles per month). The wage rate, not published in the Narkhoz, is from G. I. Vorob’ev et al (Lesnoye khozyaystvo SSSR, Moscow, Lesnaya Promyshlennost‘, 1977, p. 331). Social insurance deductions are calculated at 4.4 percent of wages (CIA, GNP I970, p. 53). Other current outlays are estimated to be one-fourth of total current outlays. c. State administration and the administrative organs of social organizations. This item is a combination of two sectors in CIA, GNP I 970: (1) state administration, and (2) the administrative organs of social organizations. The separation of the two sectors in CIA, GNP 1970 was somewhat arbitrary, and we used the same man-hour employment index to measure changes in the activity level of both sectors. It was decided therefore to use one combined sector in this report. Total outlays are estimated at 3.821 billion rubles—the sum of wages (2.717 billion rubles), social insurance deductions (0.149 billion rubles), and other current outlays (0.955 billion rubles). Wages are derived from employment (1.838 million—-Narkhoz I978, p. 366) and the average wage rate (123.2 rubles per month- Ibid, p. 372). Social insurance deductions are calculated at 5.5 percent of the wage bill (CIA, GNP I 970, p. 54). Other current outlays are assumed to be one-fourth of total current outlays. 138 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.