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USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80

Central Intelligence Agency · 1982-12-08 · 399 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 36 …In the USSR the collective farm, or kolkhoz, is part state and part cooperative. The land…
  • p. 47 …0.66e_ Consumer cooperatives 1.283 i Retained profits of consumer cooperatives 0.821 Tax on…
  • p. 50 …Hill, The Measurement of Real Product, The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris, 1971; R…
  • p. 103 …Net profits of consumer cooperatives were included with retail trade and public dining. Subsidies. This item…
  • p. 118 …and economic admin- istration, administrative organs of cooperative and social organizations,” for which employment and oth…
  • p. 119 …Social organi- zations include the administrative organs of the All- Union Society of Consumer Cooperatives, the…
  • p. 130 …The profits distributed to consumer cooperative members are now considered to be a transfer receipt rather…
  • p. 133 …Profits distributed to consumer cooperative members 0.027 9. Total income 217.206 Sources to this…
  • p. 134 …Profits distributed to consumer cooperative members. See CIA, GNP I970, p. 23. 9. Total income. This…
  • p. 135 …State, cooperative, and commission sales 141.096 (1)Fo0d 84.104 (2) Soft goods 42.734…
  • p. 137 …Charges paid by members of housing 0.075 cooperatives for maintenance lmputed gross rent on urban…
  • p. 138 …Taxes on land and buildings owned by individuals and cooperatives are from Gosb_vudzhet I972, p…
  • p. 139 …Retained profits of consumer cooperatives 0.821 d. Retained profits of other organizations 0.321 2…
  • p. 142 …Profits distributed to consumer 0.027 cooperative members 8.’C;solidate_d total outlays 215.841…
  • p. 147 …Consumer cooperatives 1.283 (1) Retained profits of consumer cooperatives 0.821 (2) Tax on income…
  • p. 160 …532) plus a share of the amortization deductions of consumer cooperatives. Altough consumer cooperatives are primarily…
  • p. 162 …532) and amortization deductions of consumer cooperatives on industrial capital (0.083 billion ru~ bles-—see…
  • p. 164 …retained profits and income taxes of consumer cooperatives and other organizations, respectively. 7. Total pra/its…
  • p. 257 …Other state purchasing orga- nizations are the Central Union of Consumer Cooper- atives, and the Ministries…
  • p. 286 …Review of I978 and Outlook for I97 9, Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, April 1979, p…
  • p. 330 …exceeded the prices paid in state and cooperative retail outlets by an average of ~59 percent…
  • p. 331 …index of retail prices in state and cooperative outlets. The index which shows almost no change…
  • p. 332 …In coverage, it differs from the CIA index of consumption, mainly by inclusion of cooperative housing…
  • p. 335 …purchases of these items in state and cooperative retail outlets and in collective farm markets, including…
  • p. 339 …The index implicitly covers all goods purchased in state and cooperative retail out- lets, except those…
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table D—4 (Continued)
Sources to this table (Continued):
was assumed that the shares of other (nonlabor) current outlays in
total expenditures were the same in both health and physical culture.
The estimate resulting from this assumption is that other current
expenditures are 36.9 percent of total expenditures.
Total expenditures on physical culture are estimated at 1.009
billion rubles, the sum of public-sector outlays (0.061 billion rubles—
item 1,c below), the subsidy for recreation (0.501 billion rubles-
table D-3, item 4), and household expenditures for passes to resorts
and the like (0.447 billion rubles—CIA, GNP I970, p. 42). Other
current outlays are 36.9 percent, or 0.372 billion rubles of total
expenditures. Of this total, 0.022 billion rubles represent budgetary
expenditures. Wages and social security payments in physical
culture are then determined as total outlays less other current
outlays, or 0.637 billion rubles. This in turn determines wages and
social insurance in health as 5.279 billion rubles (5.916 billion rubles
in health and physical culture less 0.637 billion rubles in physical
culture).
Finally, other current outlays from the budget are determined as
they were for education. Other current outlays are computed as a
percentage of total current outlays for identified republic budgetary
expenditures and then multiplied by total budgetary health expen-
ditures. The result is an estimate of other current outlays in health
and physical culture of 3.106 billion rubles. Subtracting the
estimated outlays of physical culture of 0.022 billion rubles pro-
duces outlays on health alone of 3.084 billion rubles.
c. Physical culture. Public-sector outlays on physical culture are
0.061 billion rubles, the sum of budgetary expenditures (0.047
billion rubles—Narkhoz I970, p. 734) and other expenditures
(0.014 billion rubles). V. Cao-Pinna and S. S. Shatalin published a
value for 1969 of public-sector outlays of 0.053 billion rubles
(Consumption Expenditures in Eastern and Western Europe, New
York, Pergamon Press, 1979, p. 116). Budgetary outlays in 1969
were 0.041 billion rubles (Narkhoz I970, p. 734). Assuming the
relationship between budgetary and other expenditures in 1969 is
the same in 1970, then total outlays in 1970 are:
(0.047)x (0.053/0.041) = 0.061 billion rubles.
2. Government Administrative Services
a. General agricultural programs. This item is the sum of wages
(0.721 billion rubles), social insurance deductions (0.032 billion
rubles), and other current outlays (0.251 billion rubles). Wages are
derived from employment (0.586 million) and the average wage rate
(102.5 rubles per month). Employment is determined as the differ-
ence between total state agricultural employment (9.419 million—
Narkhoz I978, p. 366) and employment in state farms and other
state enterprises (8.833 million—Ibid). The wage rate is determined
from the difference in the wage rates for total state agriculture
(101.0 rubles per m0nth—Ibid, p. 372) and state farms and other
state organizations (100.9 rubles per month—lbid). The following
tabulation shows the calculation:
Monthly
Wages
(billion
rubles)
0.951
0.891
Employ- Wage
ment Rate
(million (rubles per
people) month)
Total state agriculture 9.419 101.0
State farms and other 8.833 100.9
state enterprises
General agricultural 0.586 102.5
programs
0.060
Social insurance deductions are derived as 4.4 percent of wages
(CIA, GNP 1970, p. 53). Other current outlays are estimated as one-
fourth of current outlays, a reduction from the one-third used in
CIA, GNP I 970 (p. 53) for government administrative services. The
lower share is based on fragmentary evidence that labor costs
comprise the vast bulk of outlays on these government services. The
share would be lower than in education (31 percent—-item 1,a above)
and health (37 percent—item l,b above), where food costs are large.
b. Forestry. Total outlays are estimated as 0.636 billion rubles: the
sum of wages (0.457 billion rubles), social insurance deductions
(0.020 billion rubles), and other current outlays (0.159 billion
rubles). Wages are derived from employment (0.433 million—
Narkhoz I978, p. 366) and the average wage rate (88 rubles per
month). The wage rate, not published in the Narkhoz, is from G. I.
Vorob’ev et al (Lesnoye khozyaystvo SSSR, Moscow, Lesnaya
Promyshlennost‘, 1977, p. 331). Social insurance deductions are
calculated at 4.4 percent of wages (CIA, GNP I970, p. 53). Other
current outlays are estimated to be one-fourth of total current
outlays.
c. State administration and the administrative organs of social
organizations. This item is a combination of two sectors in CIA,
GNP I 970: (1) state administration, and (2) the administrative
organs of social organizations. The separation of the two sectors in
CIA, GNP 1970 was somewhat arbitrary, and we used the same
man-hour employment index to measure changes in the activity
level of both sectors. It was decided therefore to use one combined
sector in this report.
Total outlays are estimated at 3.821 billion rubles—the sum of
wages (2.717 billion rubles), social insurance deductions (0.149
billion rubles), and other current outlays (0.955 billion rubles).
Wages are derived from employment (1.838 million—-Narkhoz
I978, p. 366) and the average wage rate (123.2 rubles per month-
Ibid, p. 372). Social insurance deductions are calculated at 5.5
percent of the wage bill (CIA, GNP I 970, p. 54). Other current
outlays are assumed to be one-fourth of total current outlays.
138
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.