Documents / FOIA release

USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80

Central Intelligence Agency · 1982-12-08 · 399 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 18 …Power, United Nations International Comparisons Project, Phase I (Baltimore, The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1975) ICP…
  • p. 19 …Oleg 1-Ioeffding, Soviet National Income and Product in 1928, Columbia University Press, New York, 1954…
  • p. 21 …In theory, the Soviets " Basic Principles of the System of Balances of the National Economy, United…
  • p. 50 …Lawrence Grose, Real Output Measurement in the United States National Income and Product Accounts, US Department…
  • p. 166 …The subsidies on housing, recreation, and the press were allocated to the housing, recreation, and other…
  • p. 181 …Duke University Press, 1972), pp. 155-194; with Wade Robertson, “Industrial Production in the USSR," Soviet…
  • p. 183 …tons, square meters, units of production, or some other convention- al measure. Examples of this type…
  • p. 210 …For example, the production of commodities pub- lished in physical units includes intraplant turnover, but the…
  • p. 222 …bulbs Units Narkhoz Machine tools sector ml Meta? cutting machine tools Rubles Narkhoz Forge presses sector…
  • p. 249 …Hardt, eds., Soviet Economic Statistics, Durham, N.C., Duke University Press, 1972 Treml and Hardt U…
  • p. 261 …Khrushchev stat- ed that “figures for average yield (of grain) which you read in the press…
  • p. 308 …central press. 8 Because the official data have again been made available to the United States…
  • p. 320 …Power, United Nations International Comparisons Project, Phase I (Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1975) ICP…
  • p. 321 …2 For details, see United Nations, Comparisons ofthe System of National Accounts and the System of…
  • p. 328 …Judging from a mass of anecdotal evidence from the Soviet press concerning the poor quality of…
  • p. 342 …Although the average size of a dwelling unit increased between 1950 and 1978-by 17 percent…
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
several miscellaneous identified incomes. Gosbyudzhet 1972 gives
T
total revenues from the socialist sector and identifies several
components (pp. ll-12), leaving a large residual:
Billion Rubles
Total income from the socialist sector 142.8587
Less:
Turnover taxes 49.3798
Payments of state enterprises and other economic 54.1568
organizations from profits
Income taxes from kolkhozy and social 1.2344
organizations
Social insurance charges 8.2034
Forestry income 0.4924
Equals:
Residual 29.3919
Several other income items, which can be estimated or identified
from other parts of Gosbyudzhet I 972 or from other sources, reduce
this residual substantially:
Billion Rubles
Residual 29.3919
Less:
Local fees from enterprises _0.4588
0.0626
1 .7000
Rental income
Income from reduction of administrative
expenses
Republic budget surplus 1.2548
2.0000
7.5810
0.7348
0.0835
0.5100
0.7500
Increase in the supply of money
Income from foreign trade
Parents’ fees for kindergartens
Parents’ fees for nurseries
Price markups on radio and television sets
Surcharges on spare parts for agricultural
machinery
Equals:
Revised residual 14.2564
The estimates of income from reduction of administrative
expenses and the increase in the supply of money are taken from Igor
Birman, Secret Incomes of the Soviet State Budget, The Hague,
135
Martinus Nijhoff Publishers, 1981, pp. 82 and 202. The estimate of
surcharges on spare parts for agricultural machinery is derived from
the estimate for 1972 in Vladimir G. Treml, Agricultural Subsidies
in the Soviet Union, p. 28, and the indication that the 1970 and 1972
values were virtually identical (Vladimir G. Treml, Price lndexesfor
Soviet I8-Sector Input-Output Tables for I959-I975, Arlington,
Va., SRI International, 1978, p. 96). The estimate of income from
foreign trade is derived as the sum of the differences in the prices of
exports and imports in domestic and foreign trade prices. Estimates
of exports and imports in domestic prices are from Vladimir G.
Treml, and Barry L. Kostinsky, The Domestic Value of Soviet
Foreign Trade: Exports and Imports in the I 972 Input-Output
Table, US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census,
Foreign Economic Report No. 20, Washington, D. C., forthcoming.
Exports and imports in foreign trade prices are in Narkhoz I 972, p.
737.
The revised residual may include income from such sources as:
custom duties, gross receipts of budget organizations, miscellaneous
levies and nontax revenues, unspent budget allocations, fines,
deductions for the road economy, and possibly bank loans to the
budget equivalent to the increase in savings deposits of the
population. In the absence of information on the content of the
revised residual, we assume that 90 percent (l2.8303 billion rubles)
represents income derived from current production of goods and
services.
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.