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USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80

Central Intelligence Agency · 1982-12-08 · 399 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 4 …The volume contains a series of tables estimating the Soviet gross national product and its components…
  • p. 5 …quantified estimates of the value of Soviet gross national product (GNP), its rate of growth, its…
  • p. 6 …The Soviet indices of industrial and agricultural production are based on gross output rather than value…
  • p. 7 …For example, data on the amount of waste included in the gross output data of agricultural…
  • p. 8 …The measure shown represents “net output,” or gross output less products used by agriculture (seed and…
  • p. 9 …compendium on the Soviet eeonomV- “The Real Gross National Product of the U.S.S.R…
  • p. 10 …Contributions of Rush V. Greenslade ________ _________________-________ ____ __ 1x I. Gross National Product of the USSR, 1950—80.-______________________________ 3…
  • p. 12 …Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Part I. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OF THE USSR, 1950-80 By…
  • p. 14 …Turnover Taxes as a Share of Gross Output in Industry, 1972 6. Subsidies on Agricultural Products…
  • p. 15 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Gross National Product of the Soviet Union in Established Prices, 39 by…
  • p. 16 …of Value Added in Agriculture B-8. Gross Output, Total Material Purchases, and Value Added in…
  • p. 17 …I Soviet Gross National Product in Established Priceskby End Use, I if I970 D-6. I…
  • p. 18 …An International Comparison, 1981 Gross National Product of the USSR: An International Comparison, 1982 Soviet Economic…
  • p. 19 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Gross National Product of the USSR, 1950-80 Introduction This paper presents…
  • p. 20 …Lee, “USSR Gross National Product in Established Prices, 1955-1975,” Jahrbuch der Wirtsc/la/I Osteuropas…
  • p. 27 …GNP for the Soviet Union and of gross domestic product (GDP) for selected OECD countries.” For…
  • p. 34 …Lee, “USSR Gross National Product," p. 413; and Becker, 1969, p. 128. difference between the growth…
  • p. 35 …conducted on a net rather than a gross basis. The enterprise is expected to be managed…
  • p. 41 …the business sector and are included in gross private business investment. The second US account shows…
  • p. 43 …On the other hand, the tax amounts to 30 percent of the gross output of the…
  • p. 44 …Turnover taxes were 30 and 56 percent of the gross outputs of the sugar and other…
  • p. 45 …The capital stock data used in this study are gross of depreciation. Approved for Release: 2019…
  • p. 47 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 8 Billion Rubles Gross National Product of the Soviet Union ' in…
  • p. 48 …The row and column sums are determined as each sector’s gross output less, respec- tively…
  • p. 49 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 10 Percent 1970 Soviet Gross National Product by End Use W…
  • p. 52 …Therefore, value added is computed as a residual—the difference between gross output and current material…
  • p. 53 …Therefore, if in- dexes of gross output and current inputs are both available, the gross output…
  • p. 56 …Each subbranch index measures the gross output of an I-O sector by summing the physical…
  • p. 57 …The material-input index is less desirable than a double deflation or gross output index, but…
  • p. 58 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Appendix A ' Soviet Gross National Product, 1950-80 This appendix presents the…
  • p. 59 …5 0.5 0.6 0.6 Gross national product 133.6 137.7 145.8…
  • p. 60 …4 ._ §l§5QfI.i2j§§5 1.0 Gross national product 232.3 245.3 254.5…
  • p. 61 …4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Gross national product 383.3 398.2 405.7…
  • p. 62 …0 5.2 3.7 2.7___ Gross national product 5.5 5.9 5.0…
  • p. 63 …8 7.6 5.8 4.0 Gross national product 3.1 5.9 5.2…
  • p. 64 …5.1 4.; 2.9 7.7“ ' Gross national product 5.6 3.8 -1.1…
  • p. 65 …2 3.4 0.8 1 4 Gross national product 3.9 1.9 7.3…
  • p. 66 …9 0.3 2.5 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 67 …3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 68 …3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 69 …3 51.2 55.1 58.3 _ Gross national product 34.9 35.9 38.0…
  • p. 71 …7 134.1 135.2 137.1 Gross national product 100.0 103.9 105.9…
  • p. 72 …27.5 24.. ?6i5j_; Gross national product 133.6 137.7 145.8 153.4 160…
  • p. 73 …1 43.7 45.9 s9.7_‘ Gross national product 232.3 245.3 254.5…
  • p. 75 …4.5 1.1 5.9 -3.1 Gross national product 5.5 5.9 5…
  • p. 76 …0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 3.1 5.9 5.2…
  • p. 77 …0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 5.6 3.8 -1.1…
  • p. 78 …g 4.3 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 3.9 1.9 7.3…
  • p. 79 …1 28.1 29.1 30.2 Gross national product 741.7 752.2 784.0…
  • p. 80 …9 36.6 31.8 Ww3§’.98W Gross national product 1,083.8 1,124.6…
  • p. 81 …1 46.1 46.9 46.8 Gross national product 1,578.5 1,624.6…
  • p. 82 …3.2 7* 1.4 1.3 Gross national product 3.7 4.0 3.5…
  • p. 83 …1 14.0 13.8 13.5 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 84 …8 13.4 13.3 7 17717 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 85 …4 9.6 8.1 6.9 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 86 …31.7 65.3______s.9 g Gross national product 34.9 35.9 38.0…
  • p. 87 …9 98.2 103.1 89.1 Gross national product 60.6 64.0 66.4…
  • p. 88 …8 110.4 93.7 81.8 Gross national product 100.0 103.9 105.9…
  • p. 89 …Subtracting the deflated material pur- chases from the deflated gross output produces value added in constant…
  • p. 90 …The ratio of material inputs (gross output less NMP) to gross output declined slowly in this…
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
rubles), privately provided services (0.929 billion rubles), and other
services (0.087 billion rubles). The state-provided everyday services
are from Narkhoz 1972, p. 621. The Narkhoz data must be adjusted
to exclude sales of housing repair and construction and sales to
enterprises of all types of services. They also must be adjusted to
include the value of materials used in repair and tailoring of clothing
and repair of knitwear, which was deducted from the retail sales of
goods to households for consumption (item 1, above). According to
data published by Dmitriev (Metodologicheskiye osnovy prognozir-
ovaniya sprosa na bytovyye uslugi, p. 98), 7.6 percent of the total
sales reported in the Narkhoz (307.4 million rubles) represent
purchases by enterprises. This amount presumably includes sales to
enterprises of housing construction and repair services, estimated
above at 5 percent of the sales of these services. In order to avoid dou-
ble counting these sales, only 95 percent of the published value of
housing construction and repair value is deducted. Similarly, the
purchases of clothing and knitted materials must be added, net of the
portion sold to enterprises. The latter is estimated at 4 percent of
reported sales. Total sales of state-provided everyday services to the
population are estimated as follows:
Million Rubles
reported sales of everyday services 4,044.4
oLess:
7 i Enterprise purchasesof everyday services 307.4
95 percent of sales of housing construction and 375.0
repa_ir services
Plus:
96 percent of materials used in tailoring and 1,003.3
repair of clothing _I
_96 percent of materials used in repair of knitwear 1 15.4
_iEquals:
Sales of everyday services to households 4,480.7
Household expenditures on privately provided services were estimat-
ed in table D-1, item 4,a, (2),(b). Expenditures on other services are
from CIA, GNP I970, p. 42.
(5) Recreation expenditures (2.547 billion rubles) have been reduced
by 0.100 billion rubles from the value derived in CIA, GNP 1970, p.
42 in order to account for business travel expenses on hotel
accommodations. This deduction is an arbitrary value. Household
expenditures on recreation are computed as follows:
Billion Rubles
Bnal household expenditures on recreation _ 2.547
1.500
0.447
Entertainment
_*Passes to resorts and the_1_i_k§___
Hotelsgrimotels, and the like V
_0.062
0.538Private room rentals
(6) Education expenditures by households consist of expenditures for
private services (0.470 billion rubles) and fees for public education
(0.971 billion rubles). The former is derived in table D-1, item 4,a,(2),
(d) and the later in CIA, GNP 1970, pp. 42-43.
133
93-89? 1) — 82 - 10
(7) Health expenditures by households consist of expenditures for
private services (0.250 billion rubles) and fees paid by parents for
children‘s nursery care (0.095 billion rubles). The former is derived
I111 table D-1, item 4.a,(2),(e) and the latter in CIA. GNP 1970, p. 43.
3. Consumption in kind
a. Farm consumption in kind. See table D-1, item 2,c,(1).
(1) Food is from CIA, GNP I970, p. 61.
(.2) Soft goods is from CIA, GNP I970, pp. 61-62.
b. Military subsistence. See table D-1, item 3,b.
(1) Food is a CIA estimate. .
(.2) Soft goods is a CIA estimate.
4. Total outlaysfor consumption. This was derived as the sum of
items 1, 2. and 3.
5. Investment
a.. Private housing construction. See Narkhoz I972, p. 486.
b. Farm investment in kind. See table D-1, item 2,c.(2).
6. Total outlaysfor consumption and investment. This was derived
as the sum of items 4 and 5.
7. Transfer outlays
a. Net savings. This is from CIA, GNP I970, p. 43.
b. Direct taxes. This is from CIA, GNP I970, p. 43.
cw. Other payments to the state. This item (2.703 billion rubles) is
estimated as the sum of: (1) trade union and other dues (2.066
billion rubles), (2) net lottery ticket purchases (0.254 billion rubles),
(3) taxes on land and buildings owned by individuals and coopera-
tives (0.211 billion rubles), (4) collective-farm-market fees paid by
households (0.050 billion rubles), and (5) other state budget revenue
from the population (0.122 billion rubles). Trade union and other
dues are now treated as transfer outlays because they are used to
finance various social-cultural and administrative activities that are
included in public-sector outlays. They are estimated as in CIA,
GNP I970, pp. 40-41, except for Communist Party dues. These
dues (0.390 billion rubles) are derived on the basis of: (1) estimated
total membership in 1970 of 14,192,174; the average of member-
ship figures for 1 January 1970 and 1 January 1971 given in
Partiinaya zhizn’, No. 14, 1973, pp. 9-10; (2) an estimated average
annual wage of members of 1830 rubles—25 percent above the
level for all state employees (Narkhoz I972, p. 516); and (3) a dues
rate of 1.5 percent of wages, the applicable rate given in Ustav
kommunisticheskoy partly sovetskogo soyuza, Moscow, Politizdat,
1964, p. 385. Net lottery ticket purchases are from CIA, GNP
I970, p. 43. Taxes on land and buildings owned by individuals and
cooperatives are from Gosb_vudzhet I972, p. 77. Collective-farm-
market fees paid by households are from CIA, GNP I970, pp. 23-
24. Other state budget revenue from the population is derived as the
difference between total state budget revenues from the population
(l3.844 billion rubles—Gosbyudzhet I972, p. 12), and the sum of:
(1) direct taxes from the population (12.737 billion rub1es—1bid), (2)
net bond purchases (0.470 billion rubles—1bid), (3) net lottery ticket
purchases (0.254 billion rubles—Ibid), (4) collective-farm-market
fees paid by households (0.050 billion rubleswabove), and (5) taxes
on land and buildings owned by individuals and cooperatives (0.21 1
billion rubles—above).
8. Total outlays. This was derived as the sum of items 6 and 7.
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.