Documents / FOIA release

USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80

Central Intelligence Agency · 1982-12-08 · 399 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 115 …science and administration in 1970 published by V. M. Rutgayzer, Resursy razvi- tiya neproizvodstvenno sfery, Moscow…
  • p. 116 …8 .000 37.2 Sources: Column 1: V. M. Rutgayzer, Resursy razvitiya neproiz- growth rates published…
  • p. 127 …as man-hour employment during 1960-72 (V. M. Rut- gayzer, Resursy razvitiya neproizvodstvennoy sfery, pp…
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Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Trade union and other dues were considered an
element of consumption in CIA, GNP I970. They are
now classified as a transfer outlay since the dues are
used mainly to finance social-cultural and administra-
tive activities rather than to provide services to mem-
bers of the trade unions and other organizations. This
change does not affect total household outlays or total
GNP, but it does lower total consumption
expenditures.
Public-Sector Incomes
Public-sector incomes have increased 6.7 billion ru-
bles (table D-3). The most important changes are:
(1) the addition of several charges to enterprise costs
for special funds (2.1 billion rubles), (2) an increase in
the miscellaneous charges component of taxes and
other payments to the budget (1.6 billion rubles),
(3) the deletion of the subsidy on milk products (0.8
billion rubles), and (4) the addition of trade union and
other dues to transfer receipts (2.1 billion rubles).
The charges to enterprise costs represent funds col-
lected to support expenditures on certain components
of GNP by end use (for example, science expendi-
tures) which are charged to current expenses in the
Soviet accounting system. The information on the
number of these funds and their size, however, is
sparse. The likelihood of large percentage errors in
these estimates remains.
The method used to estimate the miscellaneous
charges component of taxes and other payments to the
budget has been completely revised. Although the
revised value is 1.6 billion rubles higher than in CIA,
GNP I970, it actually has been reduced because we
now explicitly include income earned from foreign
trade. This item, 7.6 billion rubles, was previously
excluded from GNP. Foreign trade income results
from the differences between the domestic prices of
traded goods and their equivalent foreign trade prices.
We now consider the price differences to be equiva-
lent to a tax or subsidy and, in agreement with
Western accounting practices, include the income as a
part of GNP.
The subsidy on milk products was deleted because
new information indicates it is netted against the
value of profits reported in the Narkhoz. Trade union
and other dues are now considered as a transfer
payment as described above.
Public-Sector Outlays
Total income provides the control total for the public
sector and, therefore, public-sector outlays have also
risen 6.7 billion rubles (table D-4). There have been
substantial structural changes in addition to the in-
creased total. Expenditures for communal and admin-
istrative services have decreased by 6.0 billion rubles
while investment outlays increased 4.6 billion rubles
and outlays n.e.c. increased 7.4 billion rubles.
Expenditures on communal services (education,
health, and physical culture) are estimated by a new
methodology and are considerably lower than the
estimates published in CIA, GNP 1970. Previously we
used Narkhoz data relating to expenditures on sum-
mary groups of services from the budget and other
sources. Because of many ambiguities in these data
and the discovery that they include imputed deprecia-
tion charges of unknown size, we now estimate expen-
ditures for communal services as the sum of wages,
social insurance, and other current outlays. In addi-
tion, expenditures for art have been deleted because
they already were included with recreation expendi-
tures, and expenditures for physical culture were
reduced to account for the trade union subsidy on
resort passes.
Expenditures for government administrative services
have been reduced by 0.9 billion rubles. Most of this
amount is the result of a decision to lower the share of
other current outlays in total expenditures from one-
third to one-fourth.
Investment expenditures have been increased by 4.6
billion rubles. The primary changes are the addition
of an estimate for the acquisition of equipment by
126
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.