Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“V.M.”23 pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Appendix D Revised 1970 GNP Accounts in Established Prices The original estimate of Soviet GNP for l970 was documented in CIA, GNP I 970. This appendix revises that estimate by incorporating new information and reinterpreting some old evidence. The basic account- ing structure is unchanged. The first part of this appendix summarizes the most important changes we have made in the four basic accounts (household incomes and outlays and public-sector incomes and outlays) and the consequent changes in the combina- tion of those accounts to form GNP. The rest of the appendix consists of the revised basic tables which comprise the GNP accounts, several supporting ta- bles, and detailed sources for all tables. Household Incomes There are three significant revisions to the estimate of household incomes (table D-l). First, total income, which is determined by total outlays, is 1.7 billion rubles lower than in CIA, GNP I970. Second, mili- tary subsistence has been revised upward by 1.2 billion rubles. Third, the first two revisions plus other, smaller changes mean that the unidentified money income residual has been reduced by 3.6 billion rubles. The residual is determined as total outlays less all identified incomes. In addition there have been numerous small changes. In particular, earnings in the various private services have been reestimated. Included is an increase in private earnings in health and education from l to 5 percent of the wage bills of state health and education based on reports of widespread private activities of this type. There is one small change in the accounting structure of household incomes from that published in CIA, GNP I970. The profits distributed to consumer cooperative members are now considered to be a transfer receipt rather than earned income. This change does not affect the value of GNP because these profits are now reflected as an income of the public sector. 125 Household Outlays Household outlays are 1.7 billion rubles lower than in CIA, GNP 1970 (table D-2). The lower total is mainly the result of reductions in our estimates of household expenditures for goods, transportation, private hous- ing construction, and recreation. Offsetting these reductions are upward revisions of estimated expendi- tures for repair and personal care, health, and educa- tion services and for military subsistence. Expenditures for goods have been reduced by 2.1 billion rubles to eliminate expenditures for second- hand goods in commission stores, business travel, and materials which are also included in the cost of certain repair services. Transportation expenditures have been reduced by 25 percent, or 1.8 billion rubles, to eliminate business travel expenditures. The value of private housing construction reported in the Narkhoz was previously thought to be in 1955 prices and was adjusted to 1970 prices. We now believe that it is reported in current prices. This reinterpretation reduces investment ex- penditures by 0.3 billion rubles. Expenditures on hotels (part of recreation expenditures) have been reduced by 0.1 billion rubles to eliminate business travel expenditures. Household expenditures for repair and personal care services were increased to include the value of materi- als used for the repair and custom making of clothing and knitted goods. At the same time deductions were made to eliminate sales to enterprises of all repair and personal care services. The net increase in household outlays for repair and personal care services is 0.8 billion rubles. Household expenditures for health and education and the value of military subsistence were all increased in the same manner as household in- comes from these sources. Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.