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USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80

Central Intelligence Agency · 1982-12-08 · 399 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.

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p. 4 …The volume contains a series of tables estimating the Soviet gross national product and its components…
p. 5 …quantified estimates of the value of Soviet gross national product (GNP), its rate of growth, its…
p. 6 …The Soviet indices of industrial and agricultural production are based on gross output rather than value…
p. 7 …For example, data on the amount of waste included in the gross output data of agricultural…
p. 8 …The measure shown represents “net output,” or gross output less products used by agriculture (seed and…
p. 9 …compendium on the Soviet eeonomV- “The Real Gross National Product of the U.S.S.R…
p. 10 …Contributions of Rush V. Greenslade ________ _________________-________ ____ __ 1x I. Gross National Product of the USSR, 1950—80.-______________________________ 3…
p. 12 …Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Part I. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OF THE USSR, 1950-80 By…
p. 14 …Turnover Taxes as a Share of Gross Output in Industry, 1972 6. Subsidies on Agricultural Products…
p. 15 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Gross National Product of the Soviet Union in Established Prices, 39 by…
p. 16 …of Value Added in Agriculture B-8. Gross Output, Total Material Purchases, and Value Added in…
p. 17 …I Soviet Gross National Product in Established Priceskby End Use, I if I970 D-6. I…
p. 18 …An International Comparison, 1981 Gross National Product of the USSR: An International Comparison, 1982 Soviet Economic…
p. 19 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Gross National Product of the USSR, 1950-80 Introduction This paper presents…
p. 20 …Lee, “USSR Gross National Product in Established Prices, 1955-1975,” Jahrbuch der Wirtsc/la/I Osteuropas…
p. 27 …GNP for the Soviet Union and of gross domestic product (GDP) for selected OECD countries.” For…
p. 34 …Lee, “USSR Gross National Product," p. 413; and Becker, 1969, p. 128. difference between the growth…
p. 35 …conducted on a net rather than a gross basis. The enterprise is expected to be managed…
p. 41 …the business sector and are included in gross private business investment. The second US account shows…
p. 43 …On the other hand, the tax amounts to 30 percent of the gross output of the…
p. 44 …Turnover taxes were 30 and 56 percent of the gross outputs of the sugar and other…
p. 45 …The capital stock data used in this study are gross of depreciation. Approved for Release: 2019…
p. 47 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 8 Billion Rubles Gross National Product of the Soviet Union ' in…
p. 48 …The row and column sums are determined as each sector’s gross output less, respec- tively…
p. 49 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 10 Percent 1970 Soviet Gross National Product by End Use W…
p. 52 …Therefore, value added is computed as a residual—the difference between gross output and current material…
p. 53 …Therefore, if in- dexes of gross output and current inputs are both available, the gross output…
p. 56 …Each subbranch index measures the gross output of an I-O sector by summing the physical…
p. 57 …The material-input index is less desirable than a double deflation or gross output index, but…
p. 58 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Appendix A ' Soviet Gross National Product, 1950-80 This appendix presents the…
p. 59 …5 0.5 0.6 0.6 Gross national product 133.6 137.7 145.8…
p. 60 …4 ._ §l§5QfI.i2j§§5 1.0 Gross national product 232.3 245.3 254.5…
p. 61 …4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Gross national product 383.3 398.2 405.7…
p. 62 …0 5.2 3.7 2.7___ Gross national product 5.5 5.9 5.0…
p. 63 …8 7.6 5.8 4.0 Gross national product 3.1 5.9 5.2…
p. 64 …5.1 4.; 2.9 7.7“ ' Gross national product 5.6 3.8 -1.1…
p. 65 …2 3.4 0.8 1 4 Gross national product 3.9 1.9 7.3…
p. 66 …9 0.3 2.5 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
p. 67 …3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
p. 68 …3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
p. 69 …3 51.2 55.1 58.3 _ Gross national product 34.9 35.9 38.0…
p. 71 …7 134.1 135.2 137.1 Gross national product 100.0 103.9 105.9…
p. 72 …27.5 24.. ?6i5j_; Gross national product 133.6 137.7 145.8 153.4 160…
p. 73 …1 43.7 45.9 s9.7_‘ Gross national product 232.3 245.3 254.5…
p. 75 …4.5 1.1 5.9 -3.1 Gross national product 5.5 5.9 5…
p. 76 …0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 3.1 5.9 5.2…
p. 77 …0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 5.6 3.8 -1.1…
p. 78 …g 4.3 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 3.9 1.9 7.3…
p. 79 …1 28.1 29.1 30.2 Gross national product 741.7 752.2 784.0…
p. 80 …9 36.6 31.8 Ww3§’.98W Gross national product 1,083.8 1,124.6…
p. 81 …1 46.1 46.9 46.8 Gross national product 1,578.5 1,624.6…
p. 82 …3.2 7* 1.4 1.3 Gross national product 3.7 4.0 3.5…
p. 83 …1 14.0 13.8 13.5 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
p. 84 …8 13.4 13.3 7 17717 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
p. 85 …4 9.6 8.1 6.9 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
p. 86 …31.7 65.3______s.9 g Gross national product 34.9 35.9 38.0…
p. 87 …9 98.2 103.1 89.1 Gross national product 60.6 64.0 66.4…
p. 88 …8 110.4 93.7 81.8 Gross national product 100.0 103.9 105.9…
p. 89 …Subtracting the deflated material pur- chases from the deflated gross output produces value added in constant…
p. 90 …The ratio of material inputs (gross output less NMP) to gross output declined slowly in this…

Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Contents
Page
List of Standard Citations l0
Introduction
_ ._ ___H ___, ___
Our Estimates in Perspective 11
Soviet National Income Data
__._l_2*_,, _,.__,_
The Plan of the Paper
— “W13 W
Part I. Results and Analysis
__
15
Soviet Economic Growth in'Perspective
_._.
Wis _,_, _ _ _
Changes in Soviet Growth Since 195077
The Evolving Structure of the Soviet Economy
C
l6_,_ ,,
Changing Patterns of Output Use 18
Soviet Growth in International Perspective
___l_9__,,
How Reliable Are the Synthetic Measures of Soviet Growth‘? 23
Sensitivity to the Base Year Used Z23
Patterns in the GNP Residual
*1
24
Comparisons With Official Soviet Data 25
Comparisons With Other Western Estimates
I
Part II. Methodology
___2_6
27
The Accounting Framework
M _,, __
The Accounting Units
--
W27
The Main Financial Flows
— w—‘Wi§ I
Definitions and Conventions
_,,_3_0_ .
Summary of Differences in the Soviet and US GNP
Accounts
Valuation
33
_ __3 _
Soviet Established Prices
T __ 3I_,_,_,_
Finding a Basis for Valuing Soviet GNP 34
Distortions Caused by Turnover Taxes and Subsidies‘
I
Variations in Profit Rates
A 36
Differential Prices and New-Product Pricing
mu‘? I
The Adjusted Factor-Cost Standard 37
Soviet GNP in 1970 in Established Prices and at Factor Cost
W 38
,,,_,_,,
The Revised 1970 Soviet GNP Accounts
— 337% I
Construction of the 1970 Input-Output Table and
Conversion of the 1970 Accounts to Factor Cost 38
A Comparison of Established and Famor-Cost Prices
I
40
In I I
93-892 O - 82 - 2
5
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.