Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“Gross”60+ pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Table C-1 (Continued) Year (1) (2) (3) Expenditures in 1955 Prices (billion rubles) <4) W W W151 if <6) Expenditures Expenditures Index in 1969 Prices in 1973 Prices (1970= 100) Collective Farms State Organizations Total (billion rubles) _ (billion rubles) __ W Wflr 1978 46.6 g_ i191.o 1979 :4s.e _ _ 199.2_ 1980 50.9 208.6 Sources: Column 1: 1950-55 are estimated by assuming that the share of machinery and equipment in total kolkhoz investment was constant. Total kolkhoz investment in machinery and equipment for 1951-55 is derived as total investment in machinery and equipment (19.8 billion rubles—Narkh0z I969, p. 502) less non-kolkhoz investment in machinery and equipment (18.3 billion rubles- Narkhoz I 965, p. 529). Annual data on total kolkhoz investment are from Kapital 'n0ye stroitel 'stv0 v SSSR, Moscow, Gosstatizdat, 1961, p. 40; and Narkhoz I965, p. 536. The implied share of machinery and equipment in kolkhoz investment for 1951-55 is 22 percent. This share is assumed to hold for 1950 also. 1956-60 are first estimated by multiplying the share of machinery and equipment in total agricultural investment (Kapital'noye str0iteI'stv0, p. 159) by total kolkhoz investment. These estimates are with investment in machinery and equipment, the Central Statistical Administration may not have com- pletely eliminated inflation from the construction statistics. Measurement of the real change in con- struction has proved troublesome in Western econo- mies as well as in the Soviet Union. In the United States, price deflators are used based on certain types of standard construction projects, but it is suspected that the real growth of investment in construction has been significantly understated. Description of the Index. Because of the Soviet definition of its construction sector, an independent index of the construction component of investment can be estimated. The Soviets define the entire output of the construction sector as capital expenditures. Therefore, our sector-of-origin index of the output of the construction sector in constant prices, described in appendix B, represents the growth of new construction and other capital outlays plus capital repair of build- ings and structures. In order to derive the index of new construction and other capital outlays, we first 119 then adjusted to agree with control totals for 1956-58 and 1959-60. Kolkhoz investment in machinery and equipment for 1956-58 and 1959-60 are derived from data in Strana soveta za 50 let, Moscow, Statistika, 1967, pp. 198-199; Narkhoz I969, p. 502; and Narkhoz I965, p. 529. 1961-65 are calculated as column 3 less column 2. Column 2: This is from Narkhoz I965, p. 529. Column 3: 1950-60 are column 1 plus column 2. 1961-69 are from Narkhoz I969, p. 502. Columns 4 and 5: These are from Narkhoz 1975, p. 503, and similar tables in other issues. Column 6: This was derived by linking the data in columns 3, 4, and 5. Data for 1961-64 and 1966-69 are derived from column 4, and data for 1950-60 are derived from column 3. estimate capital repair expenditures on buildings and structures in current prices (see below) and then subtract that series from the Soviet published values on the gross output of the construction sector in current prices. The result is an estimate of new construction and other capital outlays in current prices. Both component series are then deflated by the implicit price index obtained by comparing our index of construction output in constant prices with the Soviet gross output series in current prices. Table C-2 shows the derivation of our estimated series on new construction and other capital outlays in current prices and in 1970 prices. Our estimates in 1970 prices are also compared with Narkhoz data in 1969 prices (column 5) and an implicit price index is derived (column 6). The series in 1970 prices shows slower growth over the 1961-78 period (4.9 percent per year versus 5.8 percent). The relationship is not consistent, however, as the implicit price index declines in several years. Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.