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USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80

Central Intelligence Agency · 1982-12-08 · 399 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 36 …In the USSR the collective farm, or kolkhoz, is part state and part cooperative. The land…
  • p. 47 …0.66e_ Consumer cooperatives 1.283 i Retained profits of consumer cooperatives 0.821 Tax on…
  • p. 50 …Hill, The Measurement of Real Product, The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris, 1971; R…
  • p. 103 …Net profits of consumer cooperatives were included with retail trade and public dining. Subsidies. This item…
  • p. 118 …and economic admin- istration, administrative organs of cooperative and social organizations,” for which employment and oth…
  • p. 119 …Social organi- zations include the administrative organs of the All- Union Society of Consumer Cooperatives, the…
  • p. 130 …The profits distributed to consumer cooperative members are now considered to be a transfer receipt rather…
  • p. 133 …Profits distributed to consumer cooperative members 0.027 9. Total income 217.206 Sources to this…
  • p. 134 …Profits distributed to consumer cooperative members. See CIA, GNP I970, p. 23. 9. Total income. This…
  • p. 135 …State, cooperative, and commission sales 141.096 (1)Fo0d 84.104 (2) Soft goods 42.734…
  • p. 137 …Charges paid by members of housing 0.075 cooperatives for maintenance lmputed gross rent on urban…
  • p. 138 …Taxes on land and buildings owned by individuals and cooperatives are from Gosb_vudzhet I972, p…
  • p. 139 …Retained profits of consumer cooperatives 0.821 d. Retained profits of other organizations 0.321 2…
  • p. 142 …Profits distributed to consumer 0.027 cooperative members 8.’C;solidate_d total outlays 215.841…
  • p. 147 …Consumer cooperatives 1.283 (1) Retained profits of consumer cooperatives 0.821 (2) Tax on income…
  • p. 160 …532) plus a share of the amortization deductions of consumer cooperatives. Altough consumer cooperatives are primarily…
  • p. 162 …532) and amortization deductions of consumer cooperatives on industrial capital (0.083 billion ru~ bles-—see…
  • p. 164 …retained profits and income taxes of consumer cooperatives and other organizations, respectively. 7. Total pra/its…
  • p. 257 …Other state purchasing orga- nizations are the Central Union of Consumer Cooper- atives, and the Ministries…
  • p. 286 …Review of I978 and Outlook for I97 9, Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, April 1979, p…
  • p. 330 …exceeded the prices paid in state and cooperative retail outlets by an average of ~59 percent…
  • p. 331 …index of retail prices in state and cooperative outlets. The index which shows almost no change…
  • p. 332 …In coverage, it differs from the CIA index of consumption, mainly by inclusion of cooperative housing…
  • p. 335 …purchases of these items in state and cooperative retail outlets and in collective farm markets, including…
  • p. 339 …The index implicitly covers all goods purchased in state and cooperative retail out- lets, except those…
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table C-1 (Continued)
Year (1) (2) (3)
Expenditures in 1955 Prices (billion rubles)
<4)
W W W151 if
<6)
Expenditures Expenditures Index
in 1969 Prices in 1973 Prices (1970= 100)
Collective Farms State Organizations Total (billion rubles) _ (billion rubles) __ W Wflr
1978 46.6 g_
i191.o
1979 :4s.e _ _ 199.2_
1980 50.9 208.6
Sources: Column 1: 1950-55 are estimated by assuming that the
share of machinery and equipment in total kolkhoz investment was
constant. Total kolkhoz investment in machinery and equipment for
1951-55 is derived as total investment in machinery and equipment
(19.8 billion rubles—Narkh0z I969, p. 502) less non-kolkhoz
investment in machinery and equipment (18.3 billion rubles-
Narkhoz I 965, p. 529). Annual data on total kolkhoz investment are
from Kapital 'n0ye stroitel 'stv0 v SSSR, Moscow, Gosstatizdat,
1961, p. 40; and Narkhoz I965, p. 536. The implied share of
machinery and equipment in kolkhoz investment for 1951-55 is 22
percent. This share is assumed to hold for 1950 also. 1956-60 are
first estimated by multiplying the share of machinery and equipment
in total agricultural investment (Kapital'noye str0iteI'stv0, p. 159)
by total kolkhoz investment. These estimates are
with investment in machinery and equipment, the
Central Statistical Administration may not have com-
pletely eliminated inflation from the construction
statistics. Measurement of the real change in con-
struction has proved troublesome in Western econo-
mies as well as in the Soviet Union. In the United
States, price deflators are used based on certain types
of standard construction projects, but it is suspected
that the real growth of investment in construction has
been significantly understated.
Description of the Index. Because of the Soviet
definition of its construction sector, an independent
index of the construction component of investment
can be estimated. The Soviets define the entire output
of the construction sector as capital expenditures.
Therefore, our sector-of-origin index of the output of
the construction sector in constant prices, described in
appendix B, represents the growth of new construction
and other capital outlays plus capital repair of build-
ings and structures. In order to derive the index of
new construction and other capital outlays, we first
119
then adjusted to agree with control totals for 1956-58 and 1959-60.
Kolkhoz investment in machinery and equipment for 1956-58 and
1959-60 are derived from data in Strana soveta za 50 let, Moscow,
Statistika, 1967, pp. 198-199; Narkhoz I969, p. 502; and Narkhoz
I965, p. 529. 1961-65 are calculated as column 3 less column 2.
Column 2: This is from Narkhoz I965, p. 529.
Column 3: 1950-60 are column 1 plus column 2. 1961-69 are from
Narkhoz I969, p. 502.
Columns 4 and 5: These are from Narkhoz 1975, p. 503, and similar
tables in other issues.
Column 6: This was derived by linking the data in columns 3, 4, and
5. Data for 1961-64 and 1966-69 are derived from column 4, and
data for 1950-60 are derived from column 3.
estimate capital repair expenditures on buildings and
structures in current prices (see below) and then
subtract that series from the Soviet published values
on the gross output of the construction sector in
current prices. The result is an estimate of new
construction and other capital outlays in current
prices. Both component series are then deflated by the
implicit price index obtained by comparing our index
of construction output in constant prices with the
Soviet gross output series in current prices. Table C-2
shows the derivation of our estimated series on new
construction and other capital outlays in current
prices and in 1970 prices. Our estimates in 1970
prices are also compared with Narkhoz data in 1969
prices (column 5) and an implicit price index is derived
(column 6). The series in 1970 prices shows slower
growth over the 1961-78 period (4.9 percent per year
versus 5.8 percent). The relationship is not consistent,
however, as the implicit price index declines in several
years.
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.