Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“Gross”60+ pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Description of the Index. The index is based on man- hour employment, which probably understates growth since the accounting operations that form a large part of this sector’s work have been gradually mechanized. The data on employment and man-hours are obtained from Rapawy, Civilian Employment, pp. 2 and 14 for 1950-78 and extended to 1980 by the same method- ology. These data and the resulting index are shown in table B-20. Government Administrative Services Scope and Coverage. These services represent activi- ties that are usually financed and treated statistically as part of the government (nondefense) sector in the national accounts of Western countries. Soviet statis- tical practice in the treatment of government types of activities differs from Western practice. Accordingly, to obtain a group of activities for the Soviet Union which are reasonably comparable to the Western concept of general government, several Soviet statisti- cal categories had to be combined and others estimat- ed independently from a variety of information. This procedure is better than using the single Soviet cate- gory “apparat of organs of state and economic admin- istration, administrative organs of cooperative and social organizations,” for which employment and oth- er types of data are reported but which is extremely narrow in scope. The problems of reconciling Soviet and Western concepts and definitions of government and administrative employment are discussed in some detail in Stephen Rapawy, Comparison of U.S. and U.S.S.R. Civilian Employment in Government: I950- I969, Washington, D. C., US Department of Com- merce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, 1972, Interna- tional Population Reports Series P-95, No. 69; and Gertrude E. Schroeder, “A Critique of Official Statis- tics on Public Administration in the USSR,” ACES Bulletin 18, Spring 1976, pp. 23-44. Activities explicitly included in this sector are: general agricultural programs, forestry, state administration and the administrative organs of social organizations, culture, municipal services, and civilian police. Each of these categories is discussed below. The coverage of this group is hard to compare with general govern- ment activities in the United States. Major activities known to be excluded are upkeep of highways (includ- ed in transportation) and research and development (included in science). Table B-20 Derivation of the Index of Value Added in Credit and Insurance Year (1 ) (2) (3) Employment Hours Worked Index (thousands) (million) (1970 = 100) 1950 264 571 80.8 1951 263 567 80.3 1952 262 563 79.8 1953 263 564 79.9 1954 264 566 80.1 1955 265 567 80.3 1956 266 555 78.6 1957 261 532 75.3 1958 260 526 74.5 1959 260 512 72.4 1960 265 502 71.0 1961 277 502 71.0 1962 283 513 72.6 1963 289 522 74.0 1964 296 538 76.1 1965 300 541 76.6 1966 313 567 80.3 1967 329 598 84.6 1968 346 630 89.2 1969 363 662 93.8 1970 388 706 100.0 1971 411 753 106.6 1972 439 802 113.6 1973 465 844 119.5 1974 493 897 127.0 1975 519 943 133.5 1976 546 992 140.4 1977 574 1,040 147.3 1978 604 1,095 155.0 1979 632 1,146 162.2 1980 650 1,178 166.8 Sources: Column 1: 1950-78 are from Rapawy, Civilian Employ- ment, p. 2. 1979 is from Narkhoz I979, p. 388. 1980 is from Tsifrakh I980, p. 161. Column 2: Rapawy, Civilian Employment, p. 14, was used for 1950 78, and extended to 1980 by the growth rate of column 1. Column 3: This is the index of column 2. 112 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.