Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“Gross”60+ pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 benchmark year are then multiplied by 1970 prices and summed to obtain total ruble values for collective- farm-market and commission sales and for household consumption in kind. Ruble values for collective-farm-market sales and household consumption in kind for all other years were obtained by interpolation. The ruble values for both consumption categories in each benchmark year were expressed as percentages of the total consump- tion of food. The percentages between each bench- mark year were interpolated based on equal percent- age rates of change. The interpolated percentages were then multiplied by the total consumption of food to obtain ruble values. These calculations and the resulting retail trade index are shown in table B-13. Wholesale Trade. The wholesale trade network serves as an intermediary between industrial enterprises and retail trade enterprises. The material-technical supply system serves as an intermediary between state pro- duction enterprises. The index used to measure both types of activity is a weighted average of nine gross output indexes of branches of industry. All branches except for electric power and “other industry” are included. The industrial production indexes are de- scribed by Ray Converse in JEC, Industry. The derivation of the wholesale trade index is shown in table B-14. The 1970 gross outputs of the nine branches were computed in producers’ prices as part of the factor-cost adjustment described in appendix E and are shown in the following tabulation: Estimated Gross Outputs of Selected Branches of Industry, 1970 (Producers’ Prices) Billion Rubles Percent Total 363.618 24.702 12.374 22.442 92.800 22.414 19.419 100.00 6.79 3.40 6.17 25.52 6.16 5.34 Ferrous metals lionferrous metals Fuels Machinery Chemicals Wood, pulp, and paper Construction materials 15.990 4.40 Light industry 62.988 17.32 Food industry 90.489 24.89 101 93-892 O - 82 — 8 Agricultural Procurement. The value of 16 agricul- tural products purchased from state and collective farms and from private individuals for use by state production enterprises or retail trade outlets forms our index of agricultural procurement activity. The data exclude decentralized procurement, which in 1970 amounted to only about 4 percent of the value of all state procurement. The physical series are aggregated with 1970 average procurement prices. The average prices for eight products—grain, potatoes, vegetables, sunflower seeds, meat, milk, wool, and eggs—were calculated directly from data on quantities and prices for the three procurement channels (state farms, collective farms, and individuals) given in CIA, GNP I970, pp. 32-35. Average procurement prices for the remaining products were obtained as explained and documented in J EC, Agriculture. The derivation of the percentage weights to combine the 16 products is shown in table B-15 and the physical quantities in table B-16. The resulting index is shown in table B-17. The Total Trade Index The three branch indexes are combined using the weights developed above. The branch indexes and the resulting total trade index are shown in table B-17. Services The end-use housing, utilities, repair and personal care, recreation, education, and health indexes are described by Schroeder and Denton in J EC, Con- sumption. Only the differences from those indexes and the remaining service indexes are described here. The end-use utilities index is a weighted average of the housing stock and household consumption of electricity and natural gas. The sector-of-origin utili- ties index does not include an electricity component because the activity of the urban electric power network is believed to be included with the electric power branch of industry. The natural gas component is measured by total production rather than personal consumption in order to reflect the fact that the Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.