Documents / FOIA release
This Central Intelligence Agency release is a Scientific Intelligence Study, TCS No. 4425/65. The Scientific Intelligence Committee prepared it with other intelligence community committees and approved it on 3 June 1965. It assesses Communist China's capabilities in science and technology through 1970, with particular attention to military and industrial programs. The study concludes that China will lag far behind advanced nations. The exceptions are a few priority areas such as nuclear weapons, missiles and air defense. It contains no discussion of UFOs.
“The Advance”26 pages
Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00659420 TCS 4425/as 291. The two organizations that are associated with all aspects of Chinese ship research, design, and construction are the Scientific Research Insti- tute for Shipbuilding, which operates a relatively small model basin at Shanghai, and the Central Design and Construction Ofiice for Shipbuilding, Shanghai, both under the control of the Sixth Min- istry for Machine Building. 292. In addition, the Chinese have constructed a probable model basin, 1,600 feet long at Wu-hsi, about 60 miles northwest of Shanghai. This instal- lation should become operational sometime in the period 1965 to 1967. It should enhance China’s ship designing capabilities considerably by permit- ting the Chinese to test fast merchant ship and warship models. ' 293. HULL DESIGN AND smp CONSTRUC’I'ION——Th6 Chinese, with Soviet material and technical aid, were able to build a number of Whiskey- and Riga- class destroyer escorts of Soviet design. More recently they completed construction of a Golf- class ballistic missile submarine and a Romeo-class submarine, apparently without the aid of Soviet personnel and quite possibly without Soviet ma- terials. 294. Although the Chinese lack of suficient num- ber of qualified personnel for the production of significant new naval ship designs embodying origi- nal contributions, they are designing coastal and river ships of their own by the application of Soviet technical information. In all marine design work, they are making every effort to incorporate the most modern materials. 295. The Chinese have a native design capability in small naval craft and have already designed and constructed a number of fast patrol boats of the Shanghai-class, which do not represent any radical advances in design. The Shanghai-class pan-ol boat probably is propelled by Soviet-designed engines, but the basic hull probably was designed and developed by the Chinese. 296. ‘SHIP PRoPULsr0N—China’s design and devel- opment of main propulsion engines for commercial ships is difficult to distinguish from that devoted to naval ships. The Chinese have depended heavily on Soviet technical assistance in this area. Main propulsion units for Whiskey-class submarines and Riga-class destroyer escorts probably were obtained from the Soviet Union. l However, it is believed that the production of commercial diesel propulsion units for small ships speeded up in 1962. 297. Capabilities in submarine design and con- struction exist in the ability to copy or modify exist- ing Soviet submarine designs of the Whiskey-, Romeo-, and Golf-class. Capability in original sub- marine design is unlikely by 1970. Original design and construction of midget submarines may be em- phasized; a. capability may already exist in this area. 298. If existing trends continue in diesel and gas turbine research and development, China likelywill be able to produce medium-size diesel engines for marine use and marine gas turbines of 5,000- to 8,000-horsepower output. These engines would‘ provide the Chinese with the hardware necessary for developing a CODAG unit to be employed in MTB- or PCE-type surface craft. 299. By 1970, China should be able to design or copy and construct any of the more sophisticated steam turbine propulsion plants presently in exist- ence. 300. There presently are no known indications of Chinese research in unconventional forms of pro- pulsion, such as fuel cells. Marine applications of this mode of propulsion by the Chinese are not likely to occur by 1970. V301. Although China is not known to be vigor- ously pursuing the development of hydrofoils for military applications,l ‘ , l l Capabilities to design and construct this type of craft for inland waters and near shore operations should be adequate by 1970. A 55 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00659420 (b)(3) (mm (b)(1) ¢ vl »l I» ¢:,1:» It <1 1, "v I (bl. (bgr F ' \ l 1 I I A /T’-\ ojoj ' ’\~—~ — :_; 9); £/&/ @ I
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 95 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.