Documents / FOIA release

(EST Pub Date) Science and Technology in Communist CHINA Through 1970

Central Intelligence Agency · 1965-06-01 · 95 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Central Intelligence Agency release is a Scientific Intelligence Study, TCS No. 4425/65. The Scientific Intelligence Committee prepared it with other intelligence community committees and approved it on 3 June 1965. It assesses Communist China's capabilities in science and technology through 1970, with particular attention to military and industrial programs. The study concludes that China will lag far behind advanced nations. The exceptions are a few priority areas such as nuclear weapons, missiles and air defense. It contains no discussion of UFOs.

  • p. 5 …Hence, the Scientific Intelligence Committee has undertaken this study to provide the intelligence com- munity with…
  • p. 10 …China will continue to lag far behind the more advanced nations of the world in the…
  • p. 12 …from the present through 1970, China will remain far behind the world’s more advanced nations…
  • p. 13 …Much good work in analytical chemistry is conducted by the Chinese, particularly on the methods of…
  • p. 14 …The most im- portant advancement in agricultural research has been in crop breeding. New native strains…
  • p. 17 …with advances in products, equipment, and production techniques. In more complex fields—for example, the priority…
  • p. 18 …In a few fields, especially those related to the advanced weapons program, a high priority in…
  • p. 19 …China is now taking steps to establish rela- tions with advanced countries of the non-Commu…
  • p. 20 …levels in the common disciplines of science and to concentrate on advancement in the follow- ing…
  • p. 24 …Research and de- velopment have continued to expand since 1960, especially in the expensive advanced weapons…
  • p. 28 …the last 10 years. Other new leaders will come from more formal programs for advanced training…
  • p. 29 …Sophisti- cated apparatus of the kind expected to be used in the research laboratories of advanced…
  • p. 32 …techniques and methods, and deficiencies in the amounts of advanced mate- rials, equipment, and facilities. Nevertheless…
  • p. 33 …The most advanced high-speed digital com- puter in China, the 16-K, is somewhat inferior…
  • p. 41 …capabilities lower than in advanced countries. Minimum operational requirements of the armed forces, industry, and agriculture…
  • p. 42 …By 1970, China will be only slightly nearer the level of advanced countries in meteorology. 148…
  • p. 45 …the situation during the period of this estimate, but by 1973-75 they should advance the…
  • p. 46 …Considerable advances have been made by the Chinese in the field of antibiotic research, but they…
  • p. 53 …This research, how- ever, has not yet reached the advanced scientific stage of that in many…
  • p. 62 _.-¢a_.- resistant materials imposed by advanced military and civilian requirements, the Chinese increased substantially the electric…
  • p. 66 …oriented toward the development of advanced weaponry and toward the production of advanced weapons on a…
  • p. 67 …The Chinese now are de- pendent on foreign sources for some advanced equipment and for designs…
  • p. 68 …However, advanced tech- nology is not needed to get most of the jobs done. The Chinese…
  • p. 78 …of the Shanghai-class, which do not represent any radical advances in design. The Shanghai-class…
  • p. 86 …These equipments, how- ever, probably will not be as sophisticated as those of the more advanced…
  • p. 87 …coMMUmcA'r1oNs—China places heavy reli- ance on imports from the more advanced countries for its…
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Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00659420
TCS 4425/65 (W3)
262. The fact the Chinese have launched this
submarine indicates that they probably have a
program to place a missile system on board; how-
ever, there is no intelligence information regard-
ing the missile system. Since the Soviet G-class
submarines were designed specifically for launch-
ing the SS-N-4 missile, we estimate that the SS-N-
4-type missile will be the immediate goal of the
Chinese, though we cannot predict the time frame
for this accomplishment. The Soviets may have
provided SS-N-4 missile hardware and components
and/or plans for the G-class submarine.
263. In the area of guided missile patrol boats,
the presence of at least one Osa-class PTFG and
one Komar-class PTC in China has been detected.
The Chinese have the capability of modifying the
P-6 motor torpedo boat, of which they have a
significant number, to the missile-firing Komar con-
figuration. They also are considered capable of
constructing the Osa-type, which is built from the
keel up as a guided missile craft. The Soviet
SS-N-2 is an aerodynamic vehicle fired from launch
tubes or ramps fitted on the Komar/Osa-class mis-
sile patrol boats. The SS-N-2’s may have been
delivered with the Komar/Osa’s by the Soviets, as
in the case of Indonesia, the UAR, and other na-
tions which have received these systems from the
USSR. If the P-6 motor torpedo boats are being
converted by the Chinese, initiation of SS-N-2
production by Chinese aircraft plants_is a distinct
possibility.
264. In regard to coastal defense missiles, China
was apparently supplied by the USSR with limited
numbers of the coastal defense variant of Kennel
at least as early as 1959. The Chinese established
a test range and/ or training center for this missile
at Lien-shan in the Gulf at Liaotung, and this com-
plex is believed to be still active.
site near Dairen has been in existence since at least
1962, no vehicles or missile-related e ui ment have
been observed in the area. 7
267. 4. Surface-to-Air Missile.s~—The Chinese
were apparently supplied b the Soviets with a
small of complete
SA 2 f '
h SA 2 it ere
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- sets 0 SIX aunc ers eac .
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identified as early as 1959, (b)('l)
ate Some 0SAM sites have been observed to .
these sites were never equipped, and in several
cases equipment has been moved from one site to
another. The Chinese appear to be purposely mov-
ing the few sites of SAM equipment in their posses-
sion from one place to another in an effort to
surprise and destroy U~2 reconnaissance aircraft.
In this manner they hope to maintain a deterrent
against these flights.
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Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00659420
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 95 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.