Documents / FOIA release

(EST Pub Date) Science and Technology in Communist CHINA Through 1970

Central Intelligence Agency · 1965-06-01 · 95 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Central Intelligence Agency release is a Scientific Intelligence Study, TCS No. 4425/65. The Scientific Intelligence Committee prepared it with other intelligence community committees and approved it on 3 June 1965. It assesses Communist China's capabilities in science and technology through 1970, with particular attention to military and industrial programs. The study concludes that China will lag far behind advanced nations. The exceptions are a few priority areas such as nuclear weapons, missiles and air defense. It contains no discussion of UFOs.

  • p. 5 …Hence, the Scientific Intelligence Committee has undertaken this study to provide the intelligence com- munity with…
  • p. 10 …China will continue to lag far behind the more advanced nations of the world in the…
  • p. 12 …from the present through 1970, China will remain far behind the world’s more advanced nations…
  • p. 13 …Much good work in analytical chemistry is conducted by the Chinese, particularly on the methods of…
  • p. 14 …The most im- portant advancement in agricultural research has been in crop breeding. New native strains…
  • p. 17 …with advances in products, equipment, and production techniques. In more complex fields—for example, the priority…
  • p. 18 …In a few fields, especially those related to the advanced weapons program, a high priority in…
  • p. 19 …China is now taking steps to establish rela- tions with advanced countries of the non-Commu…
  • p. 20 …levels in the common disciplines of science and to concentrate on advancement in the follow- ing…
  • p. 24 …Research and de- velopment have continued to expand since 1960, especially in the expensive advanced weapons…
  • p. 28 …the last 10 years. Other new leaders will come from more formal programs for advanced training…
  • p. 29 …Sophisti- cated apparatus of the kind expected to be used in the research laboratories of advanced…
  • p. 32 …techniques and methods, and deficiencies in the amounts of advanced mate- rials, equipment, and facilities. Nevertheless…
  • p. 33 …The most advanced high-speed digital com- puter in China, the 16-K, is somewhat inferior…
  • p. 41 …capabilities lower than in advanced countries. Minimum operational requirements of the armed forces, industry, and agriculture…
  • p. 42 …By 1970, China will be only slightly nearer the level of advanced countries in meteorology. 148…
  • p. 45 …the situation during the period of this estimate, but by 1973-75 they should advance the…
  • p. 46 …Considerable advances have been made by the Chinese in the field of antibiotic research, but they…
  • p. 53 …This research, how- ever, has not yet reached the advanced scientific stage of that in many…
  • p. 62 _.-¢a_.- resistant materials imposed by advanced military and civilian requirements, the Chinese increased substantially the electric…
  • p. 66 …oriented toward the development of advanced weaponry and toward the production of advanced weapons on a…
  • p. 67 …The Chinese now are de- pendent on foreign sources for some advanced equipment and for designs…
  • p. 68 …However, advanced tech- nology is not needed to get most of the jobs done. The Chinese…
  • p. 78 …of the Shanghai-class, which do not represent any radical advances in design. The Shanghai-class…
  • p. 86 …These equipments, how- ever, probably will not be as sophisticated as those of the more advanced…
  • p. 87 …coMMUmcA'r1oNs—China places heavy reli- ance on imports from the more advanced countries for its…
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Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00659420
TCS 4425/as (b)(3)
Little, if any, plant expansion will be required by has been made in the number of dangerous bridges
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1970. No serious technological problems should in the country. Motor vehicle repair and service
be encountered in the use of manmade fibers in facilities appear generally adequate to meet the
the textile industry because the Chinese can pro- needs of China. The civilian air transport fleet is
duce most of the needed textile equipment them- made up largely of imported planes, and standards
selves and can use the under-utilized cotton tex- of maintenance are suflicient to keep most of the
tile mills to process cotton mixtures. Through fleet in operation. Ground facilities and aircraft
1970 some food processing, paper, and woolen communications and control equipment appear
plants may be imported in order to modernize adequate, but not much flying is done at night or
production techniques. in poor weather. The general level of technology
in water transport of China is far below that of
5' Services the United States, though loading and unloading
g39_ a_ eeNSTRUe-neN_MeaSm-ed by Westem facilities at many of the main ports have been
standards, the technical level of the construction me¢hflHiZ6d- '
industry of China is extremely backward and will
remain so through 1970. However, advanced tech-
nology is not needed to get most of the jobs done.
The Chinese construction effort relies heavily on
labor-power instead of machine-power and on con-
ventional construction materials instead of the _
newer types developed in the West. As a result, °Pe1'ati°n5 are inefficient» the tTan5P°rt system 15
Chinese Prejeets usually require long Periods to generally adequate for the needs of the economy,
Qgmplete and are often crude in appearance, but especially when the availability Of large quantities
the functional nature of Chinese projects is not of muscle-power is taken into account.
greatly impaired by these drawbacks. Despite the
labor-intensive methods followed by the Chinese,
they do use some construction machinery. Before
1961, much of the heavier construction machinery
’
.wa_s obtained from the USSR and the European
-
Satellites. Although the Chinese claim to produce
most of their construction machinery themselves,
they still must import selective lines of heavy con-
1 > struction machinery, such as bulldozers, motorized
241. Significant technological developments are
unlikely to take place before 1970 in transport
operations, though some minor improvements un-
doubtedly will be made. Although transport fa-
cilities are not modern by Westem standards, and
242. c. TELECOMMUNICATIONS—--In the field of
telecommunications, China’s objective is to join all
major cities with high-capacity common-carrier
systems. Immediate plans call for multiplexing the
existing landlines and for supplementing them with
microwave radio-relay and scatter facilities. To
.
fulfill these plans, the Chinese will continue to
import more multichannel carrier and radio-relay
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equipment, particularly from Western countries.'
graders, and scrapers. _ _ _ _ _
- Domestic production of this equipment will alsc
240. b. rmNsPorvrAT1oN—The technical level of be Stepped up
transportation in China is very backward by West-
ern standards. The Chinese still depend almost
=
entirely on steam locomotion _for railroads. Sig-
243. An increase in the use of the radioprinter,
with some new uses of radiofacsimile and radio-
:
telephone have been observed on civil links since
naling, communications, and automation of railroad _ _
I 1959. The domestic manufacture of these equip-
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operations lag far behind similar activities in the _ _ _
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United States and even the USSR. The freight meets’ whlch has frequently been mentloned m thi
car inventory of about 129,000 units at the begin- Chmese Press’ has been confirmed"
‘
ning of 1964 is fairly modern, though some of the 244. High-frequency communications will con-
‘
more common improvements found in the West, tinue to be used. By the end of 1970, China is
such as shock control devices, are rare in China. expected to have a more modem, nationwide com»
The Chinese themselves state that, of the 300,000 mon-carrier network by using integrated multiple)
miles of roads in China, 44 percent are in poor wire and cable circuits, line-of-sight circuits, and
or bad condition, and that no noticeable reduction possibly scatter circuits.
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for Release: 2018/01/30

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 95 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.