Documents / FOIA release
This Central Intelligence Agency release is a Scientific Intelligence Study, TCS No. 4425/65. The Scientific Intelligence Committee prepared it with other intelligence community committees and approved it on 3 June 1965. It assesses Communist China's capabilities in science and technology through 1970, with particular attention to military and industrial programs. The study concludes that China will lag far behind advanced nations. The exceptions are a few priority areas such as nuclear weapons, missiles and air defense. It contains no discussion of UFOs.
“The Advance”26 pages
7- ,_-i-i-— 1 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00659420 TCS 4425/as (b)(3) Little, if any, plant expansion will be required by has been made in the number of dangerous bridges ~ 1970. No serious technological problems should in the country. Motor vehicle repair and service be encountered in the use of manmade fibers in facilities appear generally adequate to meet the the textile industry because the Chinese can pro- needs of China. The civilian air transport fleet is duce most of the needed textile equipment them- made up largely of imported planes, and standards selves and can use the under-utilized cotton tex- of maintenance are suflicient to keep most of the tile mills to process cotton mixtures. Through fleet in operation. Ground facilities and aircraft 1970 some food processing, paper, and woolen communications and control equipment appear plants may be imported in order to modernize adequate, but not much flying is done at night or production techniques. in poor weather. The general level of technology in water transport of China is far below that of 5' Services the United States, though loading and unloading g39_ a_ eeNSTRUe-neN_MeaSm-ed by Westem facilities at many of the main ports have been standards, the technical level of the construction me¢hflHiZ6d- ' industry of China is extremely backward and will remain so through 1970. However, advanced tech- nology is not needed to get most of the jobs done. The Chinese construction effort relies heavily on labor-power instead of machine-power and on con- ventional construction materials instead of the _ newer types developed in the West. As a result, °Pe1'ati°n5 are inefficient» the tTan5P°rt system 15 Chinese Prejeets usually require long Periods to generally adequate for the needs of the economy, Qgmplete and are often crude in appearance, but especially when the availability Of large quantities the functional nature of Chinese projects is not of muscle-power is taken into account. greatly impaired by these drawbacks. Despite the labor-intensive methods followed by the Chinese, they do use some construction machinery. Before 1961, much of the heavier construction machinery ’ .wa_s obtained from the USSR and the European - Satellites. Although the Chinese claim to produce most of their construction machinery themselves, they still must import selective lines of heavy con- 1 > struction machinery, such as bulldozers, motorized 241. Significant technological developments are unlikely to take place before 1970 in transport operations, though some minor improvements un- doubtedly will be made. Although transport fa- cilities are not modern by Westem standards, and 242. c. TELECOMMUNICATIONS—--In the field of telecommunications, China’s objective is to join all major cities with high-capacity common-carrier systems. Immediate plans call for multiplexing the existing landlines and for supplementing them with microwave radio-relay and scatter facilities. To . fulfill these plans, the Chinese will continue to import more multichannel carrier and radio-relay 1 ' equipment, particularly from Western countries.' graders, and scrapers. _ _ _ _ _ - Domestic production of this equipment will alsc 240. b. rmNsPorvrAT1oN—The technical level of be Stepped up transportation in China is very backward by West- ern standards. The Chinese still depend almost = entirely on steam locomotion _for railroads. Sig- 243. An increase in the use of the radioprinter, with some new uses of radiofacsimile and radio- : telephone have been observed on civil links since naling, communications, and automation of railroad _ _ I 1959. The domestic manufacture of these equip- 1 operations lag far behind similar activities in the _ _ _ l A United States and even the USSR. The freight meets’ whlch has frequently been mentloned m thi car inventory of about 129,000 units at the begin- Chmese Press’ has been confirmed" ‘ ning of 1964 is fairly modern, though some of the 244. High-frequency communications will con- ‘ more common improvements found in the West, tinue to be used. By the end of 1970, China is such as shock control devices, are rare in China. expected to have a more modem, nationwide com» The Chinese themselves state that, of the 300,000 mon-carrier network by using integrated multiple) miles of roads in China, 44 percent are in poor wire and cable circuits, line-of-sight circuits, and or bad condition, and that no noticeable reduction possibly scatter circuits. j (h\(Q\ 48 j a for Release: 2018/01/30
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 95 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.