Documents / FOIA release
This Central Intelligence Agency release is a Scientific Intelligence Study, TCS No. 4425/65. The Scientific Intelligence Committee prepared it with other intelligence community committees and approved it on 3 June 1965. It assesses Communist China's capabilities in science and technology through 1970, with particular attention to military and industrial programs. The study concludes that China will lag far behind advanced nations. The exceptions are a few priority areas such as nuclear weapons, missiles and air defense. It contains no discussion of UFOs.
“The Advance”26 pages
5 . ...._. __'.,......._..... ......., g y ._ __:.. ==-..-.-_ -_<;-_—a~¢.-.z=__...-~ ===--"1= 2 4.1 .t=.a. .' ...~.~.~.».;, 1 5 _ -._. -.1.-. ..‘.__<.._.- ’l :-~=- ;-_...‘ <.~‘_ ..;< ll zl‘ s: ‘ it J ll all 1.11‘ .¢ ,| ‘. 5: q. ~t 1 1 3 I :i 1 2 _...t. ._ 5- rcs 4425/65 (W3) ble of employing about some 200,000 persons, features the production of military equipment. Civilian production is limited to priority require- ments of industry and government, such as com- munications equipment needed to spread propa- ganda to the populace and overseas. 228. d. MILITARY MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT- GeneraL—The level of technology in Chinese plants producing military hardware has been raised only slightly since 1960. Progress has been confined largely to development and production facilities in the nuclear and missile fields. The present state of military production technology is as follows: i. Continuation of a basic orientation toward the production of ground armaments. ii. A lack of mass-production-type technology and little use of automation. iii. An incompleted aircraft industry lacking some key units of production equipment and possessing only a small production and technical capability for ad- vanced aircraft. iv. A very small capability for the producfion of high-precision components for the control and instru- mentation of advanced military systems. v. A shortage of designers and production engineers competent to set up serial production of components for new weapons systems. vi. A naval shipbuilding industry with a capability for a small annual output of attack submarines, de- stroyers, and patrol craft but lacking adequate capa- bility for serial production of some key components and lacking ability to design indigenous production models. 229. Advanced Weapons—Growing access to Free World production equipment and technology, as well as domestic programs in scientific and engineering education, may permit by 1970 the improvement of military production technology on a broader base; but energies still will be strongly oriented toward the development of advanced weaponry and toward the production of advanced weapons on a small serial basis. By 1970, China will have only a small capability to produce rela- tively advanced weapons, assuming that it has access to foreign equipment and technology with- out any marked improvement. Imports of pre- cision machine tools from such countries as Czecho- slovakia and Switzerland have increased since 1960, and japan is likely to become a more important supplier than in the past. (h\(’%\ 46 ‘ (W3) 230. Present Chinese production technology is capable of providing missile components in the small quantities required to support present re, search and developmen\ programs for ballistic mi$_ siles of medium range. However, there are esti_ mated deficiencies in the capability to support production of certain elements of missile systems. The Chinese probably will attain a limited pro- duction capability for an MRBM system by 1967 or 1968. The Chinese may be producing some kind of SAM, either replacements for the SA-2 or prototypes of a native Chinese version, or both. The evidence is not suflicient to permit .a firm judgment, but it is considered highly unlikely that either version is being produced on a sub- stantial scale. It may be 2 or 3 years before larger scale production is within their capability. Foreign technical assistance may be a primary factor in future development of the Chinese missile programs, depending on the types of missiles selected for production and the scale of the planned deployment efforts. The availability of Free World scientific and technical literature l K have aided China's SAM development. (b) (b)( Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00659420 @ Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00659420 _\/\
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 95 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.