Documents / FOIA release
This Central Intelligence Agency release is a Scientific Intelligence Study, TCS No. 4425/65. The Scientific Intelligence Committee prepared it with other intelligence community committees and approved it on 3 June 1965. It assesses Communist China's capabilities in science and technology through 1970, with particular attention to military and industrial programs. The study concludes that China will lag far behind advanced nations. The exceptions are a few priority areas such as nuclear weapons, missiles and air defense. It contains no discussion of UFOs.
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.-._c...‘.a.._..._......._...-.~... "P: ‘1“ ‘ ‘T ~‘1__2i"Y- . ...-__i..'..-s=-"-__ ll: " ji I :1 fl “ ‘:4 .u_ . ..-m-..._1_-s.‘-.¢_ ~............. . i v 3 I i i ‘I. ‘l 1 I Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00659420 rcs 4425/as -Fen-sscnan (b)(3 equipment. The Chinese are attempting to mod- ernize the coal industry. As a result, the supply of machinery and equipment from domestic sources may become larger, of better quality, and more diversified in the future. 216. While the Chinese are technically able to develop and exploit oilfields and are believed to be able to build and operate refining facilities capable of providing most of the country’s needs for petro- leum products, China does not have sufficient sec- ondary processing units to produce the desired quality and mix of petroleum products. For ex- ample, without such secondary processes as alkylation, reforming, andl or catalytic cracking, China does not have the capability to produce high- grade aviation gasoline. The production of jet fuel, however, does not require the use of these types of equipment or material, therefore China is believed to have the capability to produce jet fuel. However, any production of jet fuel would be at the expense of other products such as motor gasoline and lamp kerosene. 217. The Chinese probably will remain depend- ent on outside sources for secondary refining equip- ment through 1970. Purchases of such equipment from the Free World will provide China with the capability to produce important raw materials for the petro-chemical industry and will serve to im- prove the over-all technological level of China's refining facilities. Acquisition of such equipment, moreover, will enable the Chinese to gain experi- ence in the-operation of more sophisticated proc- esses and could provide prototypes for eventual domestic manufacture of similar equipment. The selected purchases of complicated equipment through 1970 are expected to include arrangements for technical training. 218. By 1960, the electric power industry of China had reached a level of technology com- parable to the US power industry during the late l920’s and the 1930’s. The industry is comprised of a mixture of the small, old, ineflicient power- plants that the Communists inherited in 1949 and of the relatively modern thermal electric and hydro- electric powerplants which have been constructed since 1949 with extensive equipment and technical assistance from the USSR and the European Satel- lites. Technological developments within the in- dustry have remained static during the last 4 years. Present capacity is probably sufficient to meet re- quirements for electric power through 1970, but some installation of new capacity will take place to meet specific local requirements for electric power as they arise. The Chinese electro-techni- cal industry can produce most of the generating and transmission equipment needed. The only appar- ent technical obstacle that the Chinese will en- counter in the completion of plants now under con- struction is in the manufacture of large generating equipment for such projects as the San-men Hsia Hydroelectric Powerplant. Such equipment prob- ably will be imported. 219. The construction materials industry in China is extremely backward and will remain so through 1970. However, the Chinese construction materials industry can provide the basic materials needed to build most types of projects. The Chi- nese have built small-scale plants, which produce a low-grade product for local construction and have built large plants to produce materials for con- struction in the more modern sectors of the econ- omy. The average quality of Chinese construction materials is below Western standards, but it is ade- quate to build projects that are structurally safe and functional in nature. Moreover, the Chinese are selective in the use of these materials, reserving the high quality construction materials for export or for military projects. _ _ 3. Machine Building 220. a. cr:N1aRAL—China is able to produce a fairly wide variety of basic types of machinery and equipment for industry, transportation, and conven- tional military use. Specific items include general purpose machine tools, trucks, tractors, locomotives, power generating equipment, simple petroleum equipment, radio equipment, piston aircraft, textile machinery for both natural and manmade fibers, and less complicated types of farm machinery. 221. Al hough progress since 1950 in acquiring industrial\§.qhnology has been impressive, the present volu e and variety of production is small in relation to industrial needs and military aspira- tions. The most basic problem is the small size of the present machine building sector in termS of plant capacity and of skilled labor. There are 1 (b)(3 44 \ l <b 3 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00659420
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 95 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.