Documents / FOIA release
This Central Intelligence Agency release is a Scientific Intelligence Study, TCS No. 4425/65. The Scientific Intelligence Committee prepared it with other intelligence community committees and approved it on 3 June 1965. It assesses Communist China's capabilities in science and technology through 1970, with particular attention to military and industrial programs. The study concludes that China will lag far behind advanced nations. The exceptions are a few priority areas such as nuclear weapons, missiles and air defense. It contains no discussion of UFOs.
“The Advance”26 pages
l Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00659420 —reP_sscaar rcs 4425/as 208. output of chemical fertilizer in pro a y W1 reach no more than 8 million tons. In addition, new technological prob- lems will confront the Chinese in developing fer- tilizers which do not consume large amounts of sulfuric acid in their manufacture. 209. The plastics industry of China is relatively new and undeveloped. PI'0Cl1[}CtlOI1 has increased from about 10,000 tons in 1957 to perhaps 50,000 tons in 1964. Chinese chemists have succeeded in producing some of the more common types of polymers but are lacking in the ability to mass- produce specialized types that are useful in mili- tary weapons. Current output consists primarily of three basic types of products: phenolics, polyvinyl chloride, and urea-formaldehyde. Other plastics, produced only in small amounts, include poly- styrene, methyl methacrylate (“organic glass”), ion- exchange resins, aminoplasts, chlorinated polyvinyl chloride, organic-silicone, epoxy resins, and various plastic intermediates including formaldehyde, ace- taldehyde, and synthetic phenol. Most of these plastics were produced as a result of considerable technical aid and some equipment provided by the USSR. Although China claims to produce Teflon, polyethylene, and polyester, the production of each is limited to the output of batch operations. 210. No substantial development of the plastics industry during the period through 1970 is fore- seen, without significant concomitant improvements in the domestic supply of materials and skilled labor and additional technical assistance from abroad. 211. The small chemical fiber industry has in- creased production from 200 tons in 1957 to 30,000 to 40,000 tons in 1964. This gain was largely at- tributable to plants built and equipped by Soviet Bloc countries. Viscose rayon and “Chin-lun” (nylon-6) are produced in sizeable quantities while small quantities of .1 vinyl perchloride and poly- acrylonitrile are also produced. Expanded produc- tion of artificial fibers (for example, viscose rayon) is hindered by shortages of woodpulp and sulfuric acid. Production may be 100,000 tons by 1970, an insignificant amount compared to China’s need for textile fibers. Even this level of production will depend on the purchase of several more plants \_/._.._.“\/—-wwp-way from the Free World. 212. Present production of rubber is insignificant. China is still lacking in processes capable of mass- producing silicone rubbers, oil-resistant synthetic rubbers, and light-Weight, highly chemical resistant materials. Natural rubber can only be grown in a small area; therefore China is forced to import natural rubber or to develop a synthetic rubber industry. In the 1950’s, a 50,000-ton synthetic rubber plant was built by the USSR at Lan-chou, but production from this plant remains far below capacity. 213. China is unlikely to make significant gains in the synthetic rubber industry by 1970. Im- ported plant and technology would be required for expansion. Moreover, a major reorientation would be necessary in the rubber fabricating industry if synthetic rubber were to be used in volume be- cause the present technology in rubber fabricating is based on natural rubber. 214. c. FUELS AND 1>oWEn—The fuels and power industries of China have a low level of technology by Western standards. Except for petroleum prod- ucts, however, these industries can meet present requirements for their products. Coal supplies 90 to 95 percent of the energy that is obtained from primary fuels. Natural gas and petroleum are minor sources of power by contrast with their prominence in modern industrial nations. Reserves of coal and hydroelectric power are abundant and reserves of petroleum and natural gas are sufficient for needs in the foreseeable future. 215. The level of technical skills in mining coal is low and the Chinese lack experience in the man- ufacture of such crucial items as electric and hydraulic control and switch gear, bearings, and similar components for mining machinery and \ 43 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00659420
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 95 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.