Documents / FOIA release
This Central Intelligence Agency release is a Scientific Intelligence Study, TCS No. 4425/65. The Scientific Intelligence Committee prepared it with other intelligence community committees and approved it on 3 June 1965. It assesses Communist China's capabilities in science and technology through 1970, with particular attention to military and industrial programs. The study concludes that China will lag far behind advanced nations. The exceptions are a few priority areas such as nuclear weapons, missiles and air defense. It contains no discussion of UFOs.
“The Advance”26 pages
Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00659420- .-, -\ 4 Q“ -6 ‘Q rcs 4425/65 B. INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY 1. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 197. Agriculture in China is characterized by labor-intensive methods of cultivation. The level of mechanization is low, with handtools predomi- nating but supplemented by small numbers of trac- tors, mechanical pumps, and other types of fanning equipment. Chemical fertilizer has been utilized in only small amounts compared to the amounts used in japan and Taiwan. 198. Cultivation is already so intensive that the possibilities of expanding agricultural acreage are small. The Chinese thus are dependent primarily on the use of capital-intensive measures to increase production. Chemical fertilizer is the most promis- ing method for increasing yields, but substantial amounts would be required. For example, in order to produce the grain needed to feed the population in 1970 at the 1957 rate, the Chinese would prob- ably need an additional 25 million tons* of chemi- cal fertilizer. However, domestic production of chemical fertilizer is not expected to exceed 8 mil- lion tons in 1970. Other measures that might be used to increase yields include improved grain varieties; improved methods to control insects, diseases, and weeds; and irrigation. Improved seed varieties, however, are of minor significance unless accompanied by improved agricultural prac- tices. Furthermore, China’s supply of chemical pesticides and herbicides is small. In addition, China’s prospects are not favorable for the expan- sion of its irrigation systems. _Small and medium irrigation projects have probably already been used to the maximum; and the construction of large projects in the south is precluded by topography and in the north is limited by excessive silting, alkalinity, inadequate water resources, and scarcity of technical skills. The operation of irrigation systems could be enhanced considerably, however, by the increased use of mechanical pumps. Other types of mechanization would have only a small effect on improving yields because of the intensity of present land use. 4 199. Historically, China drastically over-cut her forests, so that today the people are woefully de- ficient in wood and wood products. Artificial and * Tonnages are given in metric tons. natural regeneration of forests have not kept pace with the cutting rate, and in the long run China must either curtail the consumption of wood or increase reforestation sharply. Nevertheless, China is believed to have suificient national reserves to continue the current low cutting rate of about 30 million cubic meters annually through 1970. 200. China is not exploiting her fishing potential to the fullest. Further development depends on the introduction of equipment needed for deep-sea fishing and the improvement of transportation serv- ices and processing facilities. There appears to be no technological limitation to further substantial expansion of the industry. 2. Basic Industries 201. China’s basic industries were expanded dur- ing 1949-60 with large-scale assistance from the USSR and the European Satellites and were ori- ented heavily toward serving a large construction program and the production of military and civilian machinery and equipment. Major emphasis was placed on the rapid expansion of plant capacity and production of a few important commodities, such as steel, coal, electric power, and cement. Since 1960, however, priorities in the basic indus- tries have centered on the expansion of facilities to produce more complex commodities such as petro- leum products, agricultural chemicals, plastics, and special steels. Plant capacity in the steel, electric power, and cement industries has been only par- tially used and probably will not return to full operation for several years. In the case of the current priority basic commodities, however, ex- pansion of production will be limited by a scarcity of domestic technical skills and by the Chinese ability and willingness to import equipment, techni- cal data, and technical personnel from abroad. 202. a. MET.u.LImcY—With the exception of chrome, nickel, and cobalt, China’s metallurgical industry probably has sufficient capacity for pro- ducing most of the present requirements for com- monly used metals and alloys. In the early years, requirements for alloy and special steels and many nonferrous metals and alloys were limited by the simple nature of the economy, and required metals were produced domestically in accordance with So- viet specifications or they were imported. With in- creasing demands for high-strength and corrosion- —'F9P-$E€-R-EIl'- j j 41 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C006§_9420 :38 ____ (b)( l .~ j: l j, 1! 1 I jl l I L l I ;
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 95 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.