(EST Pub Date) Science and Technology in Communist CHINA Through 1970

Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00659420-
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B. INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY
1. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
197. Agriculture in China is characterized by
labor-intensive methods of cultivation. The level
of mechanization is low, with handtools predomi-
nating but supplemented by small numbers of trac-
tors, mechanical pumps, and other types of fanning
equipment. Chemical fertilizer has been utilized
in only small amounts compared to the amounts
used in japan and Taiwan.
198. Cultivation is already so intensive that the
possibilities of expanding agricultural acreage are
small. The Chinese thus are dependent primarily
on the use of capital-intensive measures to increase
production. Chemical fertilizer is the most promis-
ing method for increasing yields, but substantial
amounts would be required. For example, in order
to produce the grain needed to feed the population
in 1970 at the 1957 rate, the Chinese would prob-
ably need an additional 25 million tons* of chemi-
cal fertilizer. However, domestic production of
chemical fertilizer is not expected to exceed 8 mil-
lion tons in 1970. Other measures that might be
used to increase yields include improved grain
varieties; improved methods to control insects,
diseases, and weeds; and irrigation. Improved
seed varieties, however, are of minor significance
unless accompanied by improved agricultural prac-
tices. Furthermore, China’s supply of chemical
pesticides and herbicides is small. In addition,
China’s prospects are not favorable for the expan-
sion of its irrigation systems. _Small and medium
irrigation projects have probably already been used
to the maximum; and the construction of large
projects in the south is precluded by topography
and in the north is limited by excessive silting,
alkalinity, inadequate water resources, and scarcity
of technical skills. The operation of irrigation
systems could be enhanced considerably, however,
by the increased use of mechanical pumps. Other
types of mechanization would have only a small
effect on improving yields because of the intensity
of present land use.
4
199. Historically, China drastically over-cut her
forests, so that today the people are woefully de-
ficient in wood and wood products. Artificial and
* Tonnages are given in metric tons.
natural regeneration of forests have not kept pace
with the cutting rate, and in the long run China
must either curtail the consumption of wood or
increase reforestation sharply. Nevertheless, China
is believed to have suificient national reserves to
continue the current low cutting rate of about 30
million cubic meters annually through 1970.
200. China is not exploiting her fishing potential
to the fullest. Further development depends on
the introduction of equipment needed for deep-sea
fishing and the improvement of transportation serv-
ices and processing facilities. There appears to
be no technological limitation to further substantial
expansion of the industry.
2. Basic Industries
201. China’s basic industries were expanded dur-
ing 1949-60 with large-scale assistance from the
USSR and the European Satellites and were ori-
ented heavily toward serving a large construction
program and the production of military and civilian
machinery and equipment. Major emphasis was
placed on the rapid expansion of plant capacity
and production of a few important commodities,
such as steel, coal, electric power, and cement.
Since 1960, however, priorities in the basic indus-
tries have centered on the expansion of facilities to
produce more complex commodities such as petro-
leum products, agricultural chemicals, plastics, and
special steels. Plant capacity in the steel, electric
power, and cement industries has been only par-
tially used and probably will not return to full
operation for several years. In the case of the
current priority basic commodities, however, ex-
pansion of production will be limited by a scarcity
of domestic technical skills and by the Chinese
ability and willingness to import equipment, techni-
cal data, and technical personnel from abroad.
202. a. MET.u.LImcY—With the exception of
chrome, nickel, and cobalt, China’s metallurgical
industry probably has sufficient capacity for pro-
ducing most of the present requirements for com-
monly used metals and alloys. In the early years,
requirements for alloy and special steels and many
nonferrous metals and alloys were limited by the
simple nature of the economy, and required metals
were produced domestically in accordance with So-
viet specifications or they were imported. With in-
creasing demands for high-strength and corrosion-
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Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C006§_9420
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