Documents / FOIA release
This Central Intelligence Agency release is a Scientific Intelligence Study, TCS No. 4425/65. The Scientific Intelligence Committee prepared it with other intelligence community committees and approved it on 3 June 1965. It assesses Communist China's capabilities in science and technology through 1970, with particular attention to military and industrial programs. The study concludes that China will lag far behind advanced nations. The exceptions are a few priority areas such as nuclear weapons, missiles and air defense. It contains no discussion of UFOs.
“The Advance”26 pages
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Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00659420 ‘
TCS 4425/as (W3
190. Based on all of the above considerations,
we believe that the initial start-up of this reactor
occurred in late 1963 or early 1964, although the
apparent availability of excess electric power in
March 1963 suggests that it might have started-up
around that date.
191. We estimate that the Pao-t’ou reactor has
a thermal power rating of about 30 megawatts.
Assuming that the facility is operated so as to
minimize the time necessary to obtain suflicient
material for a test device, and that no serious
difliculties are encountered that would delay pro-
duction, we estimate that the earliest the Chinese
could produce suflicient plutonium from this re-
actor to fabricate an all-plutonium test device is
by early 1965.
192. Suflicient plutonium for a composite device
could have been available in late 1964.- The Pao-
tou facility, at a power level of 30 megawatts, is
estimated to be able to produce about 10 kilograms
of plutonium a year.
193. Yumen—A large industrial complex has
been under construcfion near Yumen in a remote
area of Kansu Province since 1959 or before.
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195. In addition, within the Yumen complex is a
facility that possibly could be a water-cooled re-
actor, operating in the range of perhaps 50 to 150
megawatts. l
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Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00659420
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 95 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.