Documents / FOIA release
This Central Intelligence Agency release is a Scientific Intelligence Study, TCS No. 4425/65. The Scientific Intelligence Committee prepared it with other intelligence community committees and approved it on 3 June 1965. It assesses Communist China's capabilities in science and technology through 1970, with particular attention to military and industrial programs. The study concludes that China will lag far behind advanced nations. The exceptions are a few priority areas such as nuclear weapons, missiles and air defense. It contains no discussion of UFOs.
“National Academy of Sciences”6 pages
S Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 9 1: _ TCS 4425/65 (W3), higher than might be expected because of continu- ing dependence on many of those older scientists and engineers trained in America and Europe. Table 4 gives the numbers in each field by group. 77. The quality of students graduating since 1949 varies greatly, depending on when or where the training was received. In the early 1950's, many students were graduated after only 2 or 3 years of study, so urgent was the need for technical per- sonnel in industry and for teaching. By 1955, the 4-year course was common and 5-year courses started to be adopted. The quality of training slipped appreciably during the “great leap forward,” when radical training schemes were adopted and much student time was spent in labor on farms and in factories. By 1961, quality in education once again was stressed. More time was made available for study and for laboratory work by cutting down time spent in labor and political meetings; but, beginning in late 1964 under the “social rectifica- tion” program, students and graduates alike were once again being ordered to “go to the country-side” to perform menial labor. On the other hand, sev- eral reforms have brought improvements. The “open book” method of examination is being intro- duced to promote independent thinking in place of the traditional emphasis on rote. The very high degree of specialization has been reduced; students are given more training in fundamental principles in broader fields so that they can be used more efiiciently as needs for personnel change. 78. The quality of training also has varied be- tween institutions. Craduates of such general universities as Peiping, Fu-tan, and Nan-k’ai and technical universities, such as Tsinghua, Chiao-t’ung and the China University of Science and Tech- nology are better trained than those from some other universities and from most of the specialized engineering colleges. 79. With total enrollments in universities and colleges running between 700,000 and 800,000, shortages of well-trained teachers and laboratory facilities still remain, but a considerable improve- ment on both counts is expected by 1970. Despite shortcomings in China’s educational standards, the country has made remarkable progress in educating large numbers of the population to a level never before attained. Scientific and technical graduates of the better universities and engineering colleges are well qualified to participate in significant re- search and development activities and their num- bers are increasing. Though many of the college graduates do not meet Western standards, they can make a useful contribution to programs for modern- izing industiy, agriculture, and the military forces. 80. The number of scientists, engineers and tech- nicians engaged in research and development rose from a few thousand in 1952 to 32,500 in 1958, not counting some 10,000 to 20,000 more in universities and colleges who may have been engaged in some level of research work. Since 1958, the research force has continued to expand and is believed to be approaching 100,000. A force of this size could be made up only of large numbers of inexperienced or poorly trained research scientists and support tech- nicians working with a minimum of competent leadership. Much of the work done would be rela- tively low-level research or engineering develop- ment. According to the Chinese themselves, “only several thousand . . . are the higher scientific and technical personnel.” It is these few who are ca- pable of planning and directing research projects of significance. 81. A rising rate of increase of well-trained scien- tists is expected during the next year or two. For some of these, greater leadership ability will come with the knowledge and sophistication gained from being part of China's expanding research pro- gram over the last 10 years. Other new leaders will come from more formal programs for advanced training. China has had 4-year graduate training programs under way in the Academy of Sciences and in the universities and colleges. The rate of training has been severely limited by the small number of scientists capable of training them. Progress has also been slowed by. the malpractices during the “great-leap-forward” period. The Chinese claim that 12,000 persons have completed postgraduate training since 1949, but most of them completed only short-term (1- or 2-year) programs designed to expand the substandard training of the early 1950’s and to give better preparation partic- ularly for teaching. In the fall of 1964, 1,200 new postgraduate students were accepted in universities and research institutes, which is an increase over the 800 of 1963. The proportion destined for 4- A 2] /01/30 C00659420Approved for Release: 2018 - s I 1 1 :§' > | v 1 1 > 1 ll‘ 1‘ . lg. _- =31-;=:_;.-= ; _--__a_.a - _-=-=.._....T-_-. f-.~ ——~.—..*‘;T-3‘ -.~:—-_ :._=_~ 1 l 1 I I 1 1 I ll» ll . W, l pi J1 1 ., _fiE-_.. - '6 as I23 \/\/
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 95 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.