Documents / FOIA release
This Central Intelligence Agency release is a Scientific Intelligence Study, TCS No. 4425/65. The Scientific Intelligence Committee prepared it with other intelligence community committees and approved it on 3 June 1965. It assesses Communist China's capabilities in science and technology through 1970, with particular attention to military and industrial programs. The study concludes that China will lag far behind advanced nations. The exceptions are a few priority areas such as nuclear weapons, missiles and air defense. It contains no discussion of UFOs.
“Cooper”3 pages
Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00659420 TCS 4425/as (W3) in times of food scarcity. The microbial conver- sion of agricultural wastes and by-products into foodstuffs has been successful, but the processes are not yet economical. 28. Military technology in China is characterized by considerable emphasis on the manufacture of duplicates, modifications, and adaptations of for- eign equipment of proven capability, especially Soviet guided missiles, aircraft, ground weapons, naval weapons, and electronics systems. The dif- ferent sectors of production vary widely in strength. 29. The nuclear weapons program in China ap- parently has received the support of a number of old and new research facilities. A major complex now under construction near Koko Nor in North- Central China may become a new main center for nuclear weapons research and development. The first test of a Chinese nuclear device of 19 KT yield was conducted on 16 October 1964 at the test site located at Lop Nor in Western China. 7 / If they so choose, the Chinese probably cou stockpile bombs based on these initial de- vices for their medium bombers as soon as fission- able materials are available. 30. Energetic efforts have been underway for some time to provide nuclear materials for the weapons program. A complex near Lanchou for producing U-235 could have begun operation be- tween August 1962 and March 1963. This com- plex probably includes a gaseous diffusion plant that was supplied by the Soviets during 1957-60. On present evidence, we believe that the U-235 used in present devices was probably produced by a combination of gaseous diffusion and electro- magnetic processes. - 31. Two complexes appear to be producing plutonium in China. One, near Pao~t’ou could pro- duce an estimated 10 kilograms of plutonium a west suburb of Peiping. The latter center is be- lieved to have achieved full operational status in 1963. The Soviets and Chinese also established a small test range and development center for the coastal defense variant of the Kennel ASM at Lien- shan in the Gulf of Liao-tung. 33. The Chinese probably are stressing the de- velopment of a land-based strategic MRBM capable of delivering a nuclear warhead at a range of 1000 nautical miles or more. The first MRBM prototype flight test is believed to have taken place in early fall 1963 at Shuang-ch’eng-tzu. The missile is very likely based on the Soviet SS-4, or possibly the SS-3. The system could enter production in 1966 or 1967 and be ready for deployment in 1967 or 1968. There is no evidence that may be exclu- sively associated with an ICBM. If development is already initiated, it would be 1970-75 before an ICBM could be operational. 34. As to other programs, the Chinese are un- doubtedly interested in land-based tactical missile (b 1 systems similar to the Soviet 150-mile range SSM which was supplied to China. A shipyard at Dairen has fabricated one submarine of the Soviet G-class, and an intent to obtain or produce the SS-N-4 type of missile for which this submarine is designed must be assumed. SS-N-2 missiles may have been supplied by the Soviets for use in the several Osa/Komar guided missile patrol boats sighted in China. Coastal defense missiles of the AS-1 type could be produced at Chinese aircraft plants. ’ 35. Alt ough a SA g reactor is under construction at Yumen, but it will not become operational for two or more years. 32. China has displayed anactive interest in a guided missile program for some 10 years. With Soviet assistance, the Chinese constructed a missile test center at Shuang-ch’eng-tzu and a research and development center at Ch’ang-hsin-tien, a south- Another and lar er research and development program of some sort undoubtedly exists and probably carries a high priority, 2 or 3 years will be required before pro- duction on a large scale is within China’s capa- bility. An unknown number of Soviet Guideline SA-2 missiles were made available to China. Al- though 23, possibly 25, SAM sites have been noted, no more than 6 have been observed with equip- ment at any one time. Some sites apparently were never equipped, and at least 6 have been aban- doned com letely. 6 l ( ) Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00659420 ( 0'0" @@
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 95 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.