Documents / FOIA release
This Central Intelligence Agency release is a Scientific Intelligence Study, TCS No. 4425/65. The Scientific Intelligence Committee prepared it with other intelligence community committees and approved it on 3 June 1965. It assesses Communist China's capabilities in science and technology through 1970, with particular attention to military and industrial programs. The study concludes that China will lag far behind advanced nations. The exceptions are a few priority areas such as nuclear weapons, missiles and air defense. It contains no discussion of UFOs.
“The Advance”26 pages
Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00659420 improvements in ore beneficiation and reduction techniques. Although substantial progress is being made, China’s metallurgical research effort still is far behind that of the West and is not expected to catch up for many years. 23. The research and developmental activities in basic electronics, including communications, indi- cate that China now is concerned with a wide range of techniques. During the next 5 years, it will continue to give serious attention to engineer- ing research to known and proven goals, but it is unlikely to progress significantly in any one aspect. Heavy reliance will continue to be placed on the use of foreign devices, equipment and systems with the short supply of electronics research manpower and resources being allocated only to the most critical items. Efforts in other industries, notably precision instruments, metallurgy,_ and chemicals, are dynamic factors that will affect the level of Chinese electronics technology. Any lack of prog- ress in those fields would act as a considerable brake. Solid-state devices and masers are ham- pered by a scarcity of apparatus and test equip- ment. Work on lasers is handicapped by lack of suitable high-quality crystals. Although more than 70 types of germanium transistors are being pro- duced and at least 20 types of diodes are being manufactured in good supply, China lags consider- ably in industrial-scale techniques for refining germanium and silicon. Nevertheless, suitable ma- terials for almost all military applications are ex- pected by 1970. 24. The geophysical sciences in China collec- tively are slowly improving but will remain below the level of the scientifically advanced countries in 1970. Meteorology is probably the most active of these sciences, with work programmed on better weather forecasting and equipment. Geodesy ca- pabilities are adequate for supplying all geodetic parameters of an IRBM test range but not for an over-water ICBM range. Work in the other geo- physical sciences is also relatively limited despite some active work in such areas as exploring nat- ural resources, setting up a network of seismologi- cal stations, oceanographic support to the fishing and shipping industries, and cosmic ray obser- vation. ,~ .402-seeaer rcs 4425/as 25. A severe shortage of qualified investigators and technological materials hinders research and development in the medical sciences. Reforms in education will not rectify the situation by 1970, but by the mid-1970’s, the quality of graduate physi- cians may compare favorably with that of Western graduates. Chinese medical research is directed toward infectious and neoplastic diseases with in- creasing emphasis on basic disciplines. A broad nutritional research program is underway, but it is hampered by a slow data build-up and a shortage of personnel and will not provide meaningful re- sults during this period. 26. China has directed its research on biology toward the practical problems that occur in agri- culture, industry, and public health. The quality of the small amount of published research generally is very good. The number of research institutes is adequate to support the limited basic research program. China’s capabilities in biological science will increase gradually during the next 5 years, but no outstanding accomplishments are to be ex- pected. 27. China has accorded high priority to the agri- culture sciences, and the quantity of the work will increase during the next 5 years. The most im- portant advancement in agricultural research has been in crop breeding. New native strains of rice, wheat, and com have been successfully introduced and have significantly increased yields on experi- mental plots. Chinese plant breeders are Western- trained. Entomologists have successfully adapted and implemented foreign control methods, virtually eliminating destructive migratory locust attacks. Research on the utilization of agricultural chemi- cals is critically inadequate, though these chemi- cals offer the most important means for increasing China's food resources. Plant pathological research is not impressive by Western standards. Although the small quantity of research in the animal sciences has successfully improved the health and the breed- ing stock of swine, sheep, and poultry, the develop- ment of the livestock industry will be very slow. With support from other segments, the fishing in- dustry can be expected to grow moderately through 1970. Research on unusual foodstuifs—wild and aquatic plants—during the next 5 years will con- tribute to the supplementary nutritional reserves \ 5 Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00659420 I *.—-_\.. .___— ... '. t - E s~ . 2 l i
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 95 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.