Documents / FOIA release

(EST Pub Date) Science and Technology in Communist CHINA Through 1970

Central Intelligence Agency · 1965-06-01 · 95 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Central Intelligence Agency release is a Scientific Intelligence Study, TCS No. 4425/65. The Scientific Intelligence Committee prepared it with other intelligence community committees and approved it on 3 June 1965. It assesses Communist China's capabilities in science and technology through 1970, with particular attention to military and industrial programs. The study concludes that China will lag far behind advanced nations. The exceptions are a few priority areas such as nuclear weapons, missiles and air defense. It contains no discussion of UFOs.

  • p. 5 …Hence, the Scientific Intelligence Committee has undertaken this study to provide the intelligence com- munity with…
  • p. 10 …China will continue to lag far behind the more advanced nations of the world in the…
  • p. 12 …from the present through 1970, China will remain far behind the world’s more advanced nations…
  • p. 13 …Much good work in analytical chemistry is conducted by the Chinese, particularly on the methods of…
  • p. 14 …The most im- portant advancement in agricultural research has been in crop breeding. New native strains…
  • p. 17 …with advances in products, equipment, and production techniques. In more complex fields—for example, the priority…
  • p. 18 …In a few fields, especially those related to the advanced weapons program, a high priority in…
  • p. 19 …China is now taking steps to establish rela- tions with advanced countries of the non-Commu…
  • p. 20 …levels in the common disciplines of science and to concentrate on advancement in the follow- ing…
  • p. 24 …Research and de- velopment have continued to expand since 1960, especially in the expensive advanced weapons…
  • p. 28 …the last 10 years. Other new leaders will come from more formal programs for advanced training…
  • p. 29 …Sophisti- cated apparatus of the kind expected to be used in the research laboratories of advanced…
  • p. 32 …techniques and methods, and deficiencies in the amounts of advanced mate- rials, equipment, and facilities. Nevertheless…
  • p. 33 …The most advanced high-speed digital com- puter in China, the 16-K, is somewhat inferior…
  • p. 41 …capabilities lower than in advanced countries. Minimum operational requirements of the armed forces, industry, and agriculture…
  • p. 42 …By 1970, China will be only slightly nearer the level of advanced countries in meteorology. 148…
  • p. 45 …the situation during the period of this estimate, but by 1973-75 they should advance the…
  • p. 46 …Considerable advances have been made by the Chinese in the field of antibiotic research, but they…
  • p. 53 …This research, how- ever, has not yet reached the advanced scientific stage of that in many…
  • p. 62 _.-¢a_.- resistant materials imposed by advanced military and civilian requirements, the Chinese increased substantially the electric…
  • p. 66 …oriented toward the development of advanced weaponry and toward the production of advanced weapons on a…
  • p. 67 …The Chinese now are de- pendent on foreign sources for some advanced equipment and for designs…
  • p. 68 …However, advanced tech- nology is not needed to get most of the jobs done. The Chinese…
  • p. 78 …of the Shanghai-class, which do not represent any radical advances in design. The Shanghai-class…
  • p. 86 …These equipments, how- ever, probably will not be as sophisticated as those of the more advanced…
  • p. 87 …coMMUmcA'r1oNs—China places heavy reli- ance on imports from the more advanced countries for its…
Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00659420
rcs 4425/as (W3)
research being conducted on a small scale in such
areas as molecular biology, low-energy physics, and
medicine. We do not expect any significant ad-
vances from this small basic effort over the next
5 years, but because of the increasing amount of
good applied work, significant technological ad-
vances could occur at any time. Foreign research
and development accomplishments, both basic and
applied, are readily available to the Chinese who
monitor and exploit them routinely. During this
period, it is unlikely that the Chinese will tie up
their limited scientific manpower in extensive basic
research.
17. In physics, China has accumulated a good
foundation of research data that will aid normal
scientific growth and support the general needs of
the nation, but outstanding research achievements
are lacking. The amount of basic solid-state work
is increasing in several areas, but none of it is likely
to result in startling advances. China has made
modest achievements in low-energy nuclear physics,
but accelerators available for research are relatively
few in number and variety. High-energy physics
in China is confined largely to theoretical aspects
because of a shortage of experimental facilities.
However, some scientists are being trained in this
field at Dubna in the USSR.
18. Chinese mathematicians are competent and
fairly active, especially so by comparison with the
situation in 1949. Their work follows the lead of
foreign mathematicians and most of it deals with
applications in the areas of computers, automatic
control, statistics, operational research, and linear
programming.
19. In computer technology, native competence
is growing, but China will remain behind the West
for some years. Although the Chinese now are
producing industrially general and specialized pur-
pose analog and digital-type computers, no achieve-
ments of note in computer technology are known.
The availability of computers is marginal for many
highly technical needs, and strict allocation of com-
puter time is required to solve priority economic
and military problems. Nevertheless, an increasing
number of special purpose analog computers and
fairly high-speed digital computers are becoming
available for various types of routine scientific and
technical computations.
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20. Current research projects in chemistry and
chemical engineering are concerned chiefly with
mastering known processes and adapting them to
conditions in China in order to support present
military, industrial, and scientific programs. The
research results are neither outstanding nor very
original. Much good work in analytical chemistry
is conducted by the Chinese, particularly on the
methods of analysis, separation, and preparation of
pure materials, especially for applications in the
fields of electronics and nuclear energy. Some of
the research could be valuable in the development
of other areas of interest. Chinese organic chem-
istry is far behind Western work. A small amount
of very good original work, however, has been per-
formed on pharmaceuticals. The program on high
polymers is a major undertaking, yet workers are
capable of only a small amount of high-quality basic
research. A sizable amount of generally low-level
chemical research supports the agricultural needs
in the preparing of insecticides.
21. Specialty steels have a high priority in
China's metallurgical research program. This pro-
gram is attempting to satisfy the needs of the agri-
cultural chemicals industry and the military services
for corrosion- and heat-resistant steels. A large
part of the metallurgical effort also is directed
toward the development‘ of substitute alloy com-
positions that require a minimum of scarce alloy-
ing materials, such as nickel. China is producing
a modest variety of alloy steels, including ordinary
grades of stainless steel, high-speed tool steels, and
some spring steels. By 1970, the Chinese should
have acquired sufficient experience with modern
alloy melting and refining techniques to make pos-
sible at least small-scale production of specialized
alloy types, such as precipitation hardening stain-
less steels and maraging high-strength steels that
may be required in some missile applications. The
improvement of welding practices continues to be
the subject of widespread work throughout China.
22. Little is known about China's ability to pro-
duce and fabricate titanium, but there are no indica-
tions that the work has progressed beyond labora-
tory scale. Some research is in progress on proc-
esses for extracting the nonferrous metals, such as
zirconium, hafnium, and tantalum. Investigations
of the processing of the more common nonferrous
metals, such as aluminum and copper, emphasize
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 95 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.