Documents / FOIA release
This Central Intelligence Agency release is a Scientific Intelligence Study, TCS No. 4425/65. The Scientific Intelligence Committee prepared it with other intelligence community committees and approved it on 3 June 1965. It assesses Communist China's capabilities in science and technology through 1970, with particular attention to military and industrial programs. The study concludes that China will lag far behind advanced nations. The exceptions are a few priority areas such as nuclear weapons, missiles and air defense. It contains no discussion of UFOs.
Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00659420 rcs 4425/as (W3) research being conducted on a small scale in such areas as molecular biology, low-energy physics, and medicine. We do not expect any significant ad- vances from this small basic effort over the next 5 years, but because of the increasing amount of good applied work, significant technological ad- vances could occur at any time. Foreign research and development accomplishments, both basic and applied, are readily available to the Chinese who monitor and exploit them routinely. During this period, it is unlikely that the Chinese will tie up their limited scientific manpower in extensive basic research. 17. In physics, China has accumulated a good foundation of research data that will aid normal scientific growth and support the general needs of the nation, but outstanding research achievements are lacking. The amount of basic solid-state work is increasing in several areas, but none of it is likely to result in startling advances. China has made modest achievements in low-energy nuclear physics, but accelerators available for research are relatively few in number and variety. High-energy physics in China is confined largely to theoretical aspects because of a shortage of experimental facilities. However, some scientists are being trained in this field at Dubna in the USSR. 18. Chinese mathematicians are competent and fairly active, especially so by comparison with the situation in 1949. Their work follows the lead of foreign mathematicians and most of it deals with applications in the areas of computers, automatic control, statistics, operational research, and linear programming. 19. In computer technology, native competence is growing, but China will remain behind the West for some years. Although the Chinese now are producing industrially general and specialized pur- pose analog and digital-type computers, no achieve- ments of note in computer technology are known. The availability of computers is marginal for many highly technical needs, and strict allocation of com- puter time is required to solve priority economic and military problems. Nevertheless, an increasing number of special purpose analog computers and fairly high-speed digital computers are becoming available for various types of routine scientific and technical computations. ——'F9-P—5'E€R'E1“ 4 20. Current research projects in chemistry and chemical engineering are concerned chiefly with mastering known processes and adapting them to conditions in China in order to support present military, industrial, and scientific programs. The research results are neither outstanding nor very original. Much good work in analytical chemistry is conducted by the Chinese, particularly on the methods of analysis, separation, and preparation of pure materials, especially for applications in the fields of electronics and nuclear energy. Some of the research could be valuable in the development of other areas of interest. Chinese organic chem- istry is far behind Western work. A small amount of very good original work, however, has been per- formed on pharmaceuticals. The program on high polymers is a major undertaking, yet workers are capable of only a small amount of high-quality basic research. A sizable amount of generally low-level chemical research supports the agricultural needs in the preparing of insecticides. 21. Specialty steels have a high priority in China's metallurgical research program. This pro- gram is attempting to satisfy the needs of the agri- cultural chemicals industry and the military services for corrosion- and heat-resistant steels. A large part of the metallurgical effort also is directed toward the development‘ of substitute alloy com- positions that require a minimum of scarce alloy- ing materials, such as nickel. China is producing a modest variety of alloy steels, including ordinary grades of stainless steel, high-speed tool steels, and some spring steels. By 1970, the Chinese should have acquired sufficient experience with modern alloy melting and refining techniques to make pos- sible at least small-scale production of specialized alloy types, such as precipitation hardening stain- less steels and maraging high-strength steels that may be required in some missile applications. The improvement of welding practices continues to be the subject of widespread work throughout China. 22. Little is known about China's ability to pro- duce and fabricate titanium, but there are no indica- tions that the work has progressed beyond labora- tory scale. Some research is in progress on proc- esses for extracting the nonferrous metals, such as zirconium, hafnium, and tantalum. Investigations of the processing of the more common nonferrous metals, such as aluminum and copper, emphasize r §. l /\/'\ U CT \_¢\/ /\/'\ Oi 00 fer Releeeei 2018/01/30
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 95 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.