Documents / FOIA release

(EST Pub Date) Science and Technology in Communist CHINA Through 1970

Central Intelligence Agency · 1965-06-01 · 95 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Central Intelligence Agency release is a Scientific Intelligence Study, TCS No. 4425/65. The Scientific Intelligence Committee prepared it with other intelligence community committees and approved it on 3 June 1965. It assesses Communist China's capabilities in science and technology through 1970, with particular attention to military and industrial programs. The study concludes that China will lag far behind advanced nations. The exceptions are a few priority areas such as nuclear weapons, missiles and air defense. It contains no discussion of UFOs.

  • p. 5 …Hence, the Scientific Intelligence Committee has undertaken this study to provide the intelligence com- munity with…
  • p. 10 …China will continue to lag far behind the more advanced nations of the world in the…
  • p. 12 …from the present through 1970, China will remain far behind the world’s more advanced nations…
  • p. 13 …Much good work in analytical chemistry is conducted by the Chinese, particularly on the methods of…
  • p. 14 …The most im- portant advancement in agricultural research has been in crop breeding. New native strains…
  • p. 17 …with advances in products, equipment, and production techniques. In more complex fields—for example, the priority…
  • p. 18 …In a few fields, especially those related to the advanced weapons program, a high priority in…
  • p. 19 …China is now taking steps to establish rela- tions with advanced countries of the non-Commu…
  • p. 20 …levels in the common disciplines of science and to concentrate on advancement in the follow- ing…
  • p. 24 …Research and de- velopment have continued to expand since 1960, especially in the expensive advanced weapons…
  • p. 28 …the last 10 years. Other new leaders will come from more formal programs for advanced training…
  • p. 29 …Sophisti- cated apparatus of the kind expected to be used in the research laboratories of advanced…
  • p. 32 …techniques and methods, and deficiencies in the amounts of advanced mate- rials, equipment, and facilities. Nevertheless…
  • p. 33 …The most advanced high-speed digital com- puter in China, the 16-K, is somewhat inferior…
  • p. 41 …capabilities lower than in advanced countries. Minimum operational requirements of the armed forces, industry, and agriculture…
  • p. 42 …By 1970, China will be only slightly nearer the level of advanced countries in meteorology. 148…
  • p. 45 …the situation during the period of this estimate, but by 1973-75 they should advance the…
  • p. 46 …Considerable advances have been made by the Chinese in the field of antibiotic research, but they…
  • p. 53 …This research, how- ever, has not yet reached the advanced scientific stage of that in many…
  • p. 62 _.-¢a_.- resistant materials imposed by advanced military and civilian requirements, the Chinese increased substantially the electric…
  • p. 66 …oriented toward the development of advanced weaponry and toward the production of advanced weapons on a…
  • p. 67 …The Chinese now are de- pendent on foreign sources for some advanced equipment and for designs…
  • p. 68 …However, advanced tech- nology is not needed to get most of the jobs done. The Chinese…
  • p. 78 …of the Shanghai-class, which do not represent any radical advances in design. The Shanghai-class…
  • p. 86 …These equipments, how- ever, probably will not be as sophisticated as those of the more advanced…
  • p. 87 …coMMUmcA'r1oNs—China places heavy reli- ance on imports from the more advanced countries for its…
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Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00659420
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naval weapons, although the Chinese have as-
sembled some Soviet-designed submarines, de-
stroyer escorts, and smaller vessels, the capability
for indigenous research and development is prob-
ably very limited. The capability in this area,
however, is expected to improve considerably by
the completion within the next couple of years of
a large installation which is believed to be a model
11. The level of industrial technology in China
apparently varies sharply between sectors. On the
whole it is very backward, and in most industrial
fields progress has been extremely slow since 1960.
During the period covered by this study, significant
improvements in the level of industrial technology
probably will be confined to a few selected indus-
tries. By 1970, however, new industrial techniques
will begin to be introduced more generally.
SUMMARY
12. _China’s original 12-Year Plan for catching
up with the industrialized nations in science and
technology by 1967 was a casualty of both the
“great leap forward” (1958-60) and the withdrawal
of Soviet assistance, a keystone to the fulfillment of
the plan. A new 10-Year Plan for Research
(1963-72) was formulated both to fill the gap left
by the Soviet withdrawal and to support the Chi-
nese determination to attain a high degree of self-
reliance. This long-range planning for research
and development was done in a period of general
retrenchment characterized by ad hoc short-term
economic planning. The plan’s adoption under
these circumstances points up the important role
assigned to research and development in China’s
total effort to reach first class power status.
13. During the period extending from the present
through 1970, China will remain far behind the
world’s more advanced nations in the major areas
of science and technology for several reasons.
Probably the key factor is the shortage of well-
trained scientists and engineers in the middle and
upper brackets of competence and experience in
almost all fields of interest. This shortage of
skilled manpower has caused most of the able
workers to be taxed to the limit. Another con-
spicuous weakness is the nationwide shortage of
research apparatus, test equipment, modern and
specialized machine tools, and various technological
materials that require sophisticated processing.
Efforts to strengthen science and technology have
included: (a) setting up a sound system of tech-
nical standards, (b) developing new sources for
the equipment and technical assistance formerly
supplied by the USSR, and (c) strengthening the
quality of education.
14. China is gradually increasing its exploitation
of foreign science and technology and will con-
tinue to do so during the period of this estimate.
l China has been
obtaining technical data designs and prototypes
of reliable equipment, new instrumentation, highly
advanced methods and processes, unique apparatus,
critical raw materials, components, spare parts, and
production plant facilities. "
15. China is also using science and technology
as a basis for enhancing its relations with the less
developed countries. Scientific and technical co-
operation agreements have been signed with a
number of such countries and contacts have been
made through scientific conferences and sympo-
siums, touring delegations, scientific survey teams
and training of foreign students in China. By such
means, China has attempted to increase its pene-
tration and domination among the less developed
countries.
16. Chinese work in the physical and life sci-
ences is primarily applied and concerned almost
wholly with urgent practical problems. There are,
however, some examples of original fundamental
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_ Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C00659420__

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 95 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.