(Estimated Pub Date) the Challenge of Ethnic Conflict to National and International Order in the 1990S: Geographic Perspectives- October 1995

Approved for Release: 2018/06/01 C00123268
The rise of religious fundamentalism-—not just
Islamic, but also Christian fundamentalism—threatens
Nigeria’s future. In.the North, where Islam predomi-
nates, Christianity has footholds, and coexistence has
been the rule. Despite sporadic skirmishes, tensions
along religious lines have excalated in recent years.
There are a growing number of Muslim preachers who
advocate Islamic radicalism and who call for an
“Islamic republic" in Nigeria. In 1991, a Muslim fun-
damentalist in Katsina whipped up anti-Christian fer-
vor that spread to Bauchi State and led to the killing of
more than 1,000 people in religious riots. In 1992,
hundreds of Hausa Muslims were massacred by Chris-
tians in Kaduna State. Significantly, that conflict had
ethnic as well as religious overtones—the Christians
were Katafs. E
In the southern states, Islamic radicalism is viewed
with a growing concern. In 1986, General Babangida,
the country’s strongman president, allowed Nigeria to
join the Organization of the Islamic Conference
(OIC), the global association of Islamic countries;
Christian leaders in the South were outraged and said
so from pulpits. For the first time since the Biafra War,
voices favoring secession are heard in the South, nota-
bly in the southeast, but also in Yorubaland.
Will things fall apart? The potential for conflict is
greater today than it has been at any time since the
Biafra War a quarter of a century ago. Frustration with
incompetent and despotic military government is rife.
Corruption is endemic. Infrastructure lies in ruins,
from impassable roads to shuttered universities. Dom-
ination of national affairs by Muslims is becoming an
issue in the South at a time when Muslim fundamen-
talism is on the rise.
Nigeria may dissolve into ethnic conflict much as
Sudan has, but, to the world at large, this prospect is
far more wonisome in Nigeria's case. Nigeria is an
African comerstone, a country well connected to the
rest of the world, OPEC’s fourth-largest oil producer,
and a model of Christian-Islamic coexistence on
Africa’s troubled transition zone. The breakup of
Nigeria would be a geopolitical catastrophe.
t
South Africa
In terms of international importance, regional impact,
or virtually any other measure, the prospect of South
Africa’s collapse into ethnic conflict would be incom-
parable. South Africa’s multicultural society is a
microcosm of the world, with linkages to Europe,
America, and Asia. It remains Africa’s most powerful
and productive economy. It is a land not only of great
potential for the long term but also of great danger for
the near future.
It may be inappropriate to place South Africa in a
rubric of “potential” ethnic conflict. In fact, ethnic
conflict has existed in South Africa for many decades,
even centuries. Today, thousands are dying every year
in etlmic strife as the apartheid system is dismantled.
South Africans of all races are trying to achieve a tran-
sition that has been accomplished by revolution else-
where; but some on several sides of this complicated
process are, or appear to be, intent on promoting con-
flict.
Actual and potential ethnic conflict in South Africa
exists at several levels: these may be categorized as
intraethnic, interethnic, and interracial.
Violent conflict within ethnic sectors of the South
African population rose with the political tide and
with the approach of constitutional resolution.
Although newspaper and television accounts some-
times give the impression that the Zulu nation (for
such it is) largely supports lnkatha and opposes Man-
dela’s African National Congress (ANC), the fact is
that much of the deathly violence in Natal and on the
Rand was between Zulu Inkatha supporters on the one
hand and Zulu ANC members on the other. The Zulu
nation is fragmented by a myriad of clan lineages and
boundaries, and clan conflict has worsened severely as
a direct result of the political contest.
Violent conflict between ethnic groups in the republic
occurs in the squalid townships and sometimes on
railroad cars taking people to and from work, but, in
fact, South Africa has hitherto escaped widespread,
regional strife of this kind. Undoubtedly some of the
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Approved for Release: 2018/06/01 C00123268