(Estimated Pub Date) the Challenge of Ethnic Conflict to National and International Order in the 1990S: Geographic Perspectives- October 1995

Approved for Release: 2018/06/01 C00123268
battle between the MPLA and UNITA began. Eventu-
ally this conflict became internationalized with Cuban
troops in support of the MPLA and South African and
other external assistance to UNITA. The role of Zaire
in the issue was significant. After the FNLA went into
oblivion, Zaire moved its support to UNITA; this was
a natural move, given Mobutu’s dependence on the
United States. Zaire’s taking sides in Angola’s civil
war had the effect of creating behind-the-back secu-
rity for Savimbi’s UNITA.
After the withdrawal of Cuban troops, the collapse of
the MPLA’s sponsor—~the Soviet Union-and the
withdrawal of South African support for UNITA,
mediation by Herman Cohen and his staff produced an
agreement for a multiparty election in 1992. In that
election, the Dos Santos—led MPLA was victorious,
winning 128 seats in the legislature to 71 for UNITA.
Neither Dos Santos nor Savimbi received 50 percent
of the vote, however, creating the need for a presiden-
tial runoff election. Savimbi charged that the election
had been fraudulent, and, on 30 October 1992, fight-
ing broke out in Luanda andthe civil war resumed.
Neither side appeared capable of vanquishing the
other completely, at least not without extemal, mas-
sive help. The question arose whether it should be US
policy to promote a partition of this large country; the
latitudinal morphology of the territory might make
such a solution the sole alternative to endless ethnic
strife. In 1994, renewed international efforts to medi-
ate the Angolan conflict again appeared to have suc-
cess, and a government was installed in Luanda. But
the fundamental divisions of Angola remain.
Potential Ethnic Conflicts
Latent ethnic conflict exists in many African coun-
tries. In Southern Africa, Mozambique has just
emerged from years of ethnic strife, but the situation
remains fragile, and many thousands of refugees have
not yet returned home. In Zaire, the inevitable politi-
cal transition may yield an explosion of long-sup-
pressed ethnic conflict. In long-stable Kenya, the risk
of ethnic strife has risen in recent years, apparently
stoked by official actions. In.Chad, major conflict has
recurred for decades and is likely to take place again.
Other plural African societies, from Sierra Leone to
South Africa, contend with potential ethnic conflict as
a matter of course.
Nigeria
Nowhere are the risks as great, the stakes as high, or
the divisions as deep as they are in Nigeria, Africa’s
most populous country. Nigeria’s arid north lies
deeply embedded in Islamic Africa, and its palm-
fringed southem coastlines are part of Afiica’s Chris-
tian and animist world. British colonialism threw a
lasso around some 200 ethnolinguistic groups scat-
tered across a wide range of environmental and cul-
tural zones. The survival of Nigeria (despite a bitter
war of secession) is an African achievement of nota-
ble proportions. Now Nigeria’s unity is threatened.
Nigeria‘s population may number 100 million or
more; the issue of census accuracy has roiled its poli-
tics for years. Among more than 200 ethnic groups,
three are dominant: the Hausa-Fulani of the North, the
Yoruba of the Southwest, and the Ibo (Igbo) of the
Southeast. These major nations (for such they are)
have considerable disdain for each other. Muslim
I-Iausa say that Yoruba are godless and uncultured. Ibo
describe the Hausa as backward and uneducated. To
Northemers, the Ibo are money-mad merchants who
will do anything for a price. Nigeria was born an
uneasy federation with three states centered on these
dominant nations; today it is a country of 30 states try-
ing to emulate not Westminster’s system but Washing-
ton’s.
The religious composition of the Nigerian population
is estimated as follows: Muslims, 50 million; Chris-
tians, 37 million; others (chiefly animists) 12 million.
(The much disputed 1991 census of Nigeria did not
require Nigerians to answer questions about religion.)
A substantial number of Yoruba, perhaps 2 million,
are Muslims, but Islam in Nigeria long has had a mod-
erate tone. Some geographers have described the
Yoruba as “middlemen” between Christian Eastemers
and the more dogmatic Muslim Northemers, defusing
tensions that might have led to religious conflict.
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Approved for Release: 2018/06/01 C00123268