(Estimated Pub Date) the Challenge of Ethnic Conflict to National and International Order in the 1990S: Geographic Perspectives- October 1995

Approved for Release: 2018/06/01 C00123268
Emigration _
Nontitular outmigration occurs in regions of violent
ethnic conflict such as the Transcaucasus and Central
Asia, and among nontitular populations without a
strong sense of homeland. The first wave of nontitular
emigration was primarily of those nonindigenes who
had recently immigrated to the region. In the past two
years, an increasing number of those nontitular mem-
bers with deeper roots in the regions are leaving, par-
ticularly in areas of interethnic violence. This latter
migration is referred to as refugee migration, and it
had exceeded 3 million by early fall 1993. I will limit
my remarks here because Dr. Schwartz will be provid-
ing the details of this aspectof ethnic conflict in the
former USSR later.
Resistance r
Separatism. This reaction is more likely in areas of
nontitular concentration where the local population
has developed a strong sense of homeland that is
directly threatened by the territorial nationalism of the
titular nation. The nontitular group or indigenous
minority seeks to gain greater territorial autonomy as
a way to minimize the impact of titular nation's
nationalism. This nontitularpreaction in turn has typi-
cally provoked a stronger counteraction on the part of
the titular nation, leading to'conflict escalation. Of
course, early examples of this occurred in Transcauca-
sia (Nagomo-Karabakh, South Ossetia, and Abkha-
zia), and in Moldova (Trans-Dinestria and among the
Gagauz).
i
Most autonomous units of the Soviet federation
declared their sovereignty immediately following the
declarations of sovereignty by the Union republics in
1990. But not all are equally separatist. Ethnic and
regional variations again depend on the degree of
national consciousness on the part of the indigenous
minority, the history of majority-minority relations in
the region, and the degree to which the territorial
nationalism of the majority group is perceived as a
threat to the future viability of the indigenous minor-
ity:
~ Sovereignty declarations resulting in conflict escala-
tion include: Nagomo-Karabaldi, South Ossetia and
Abkhazia, the Trans-Dniestrian Republic, and the
Gagauz Republic in Moldova.
' Russia narrowly averted conflict over Chechnya’s
declaration of independence in 1991; the North Cau-
casus is the most likely region in Russia to become
the scene of conflict escalation in the future.5
' The Tatars, Bashkirs, Yakuts, Tuvins, and Buryats—
more highly nationalized communities in Russia——-
have pressed for greater independence in a more
confederal Russia. If they are unhappy with the new
constitution being worked out, the potential exists
for rising national separatism.‘ Of course, this will,
and indeed already has, provoked rising Russian ter-
ritorial nationalism in the republic.
- Russians in Narva and Sillamae declared territorial
autonomy but backed down when the Estonian
Supreme Court declared these referendums illegal.
' Russians in Crimea have declared their autonomy
and their intent to secede from Ukraine. This has
been the site of rising interethnic tensions among
Russians, Ukrainians, and Crimean Tatars retuming
from exile in Central Asia.
' Russian nationalist parties in northern Kazakstan
have also proclaimed their goal of secession from
Kazakstan and merger with Russia, but thus far this
objective is not shared by a majority of Russians in
the region. This is in part because Kazakh territorial
nationalism has been muted in the republic by mod-
erate Kazakh political elites at least through 1992. It
may also be true that the demographic status of two
relatively equal communities has tended to dampen
titular nationalism.
Political Opposition. Nontitular groups have also
attempted to organize opposition political parties andl
or movements. For example, the Russian “intema-
tional fronts” in the Baltic republics developed in
opposition to the rise of titular “national front” move-
ments. Nontitular groups and indigenous minorities
have also boycotte_d referendums and elections. This
5 Conflict finally did erupt in December 1994.
° The new Russian Constitution did represent a loss of autonomy
for the non-Russian indigenous minorities.
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Approved for Release: 2018/06/01 C00123268