(Estimated Pub Date) the Challenge of Ethnic Conflict to National and International Order in the 1990S: Geographic Perspectives- October 1995

Approved for Release: 2018/06/01 C00123268
later claimed to have been forced out in order to get
special treatment (houses and jobs) in Belgrade and
other parts of Serbia where housing and jobs are in
short supply.
Milosevic and other Serbian nationalists used this type
of scare tactic to justify the Serbian invasions of east-
ern Croatia (Srem), Croatia's Krajina region, and Bos-
nia and Herzegovina. The threat to Serbian lives,
property, and security were used, in spite of the fact
that no such provocations existed. The same tactics
used in Kosovo were applied to other areas where
Serbs lived outside Serbia.
There is a great potential for conflict in Kosovo
because approximately 1.7 million Albanians reside
there and because the Serbs claim that Kosovo is not
only Serbian but also is the Urheimat (original home-
land) of the Serbian people. The Serbians are perse-
cuting Albanians—-closing Albanian ethnic
institutions, engaging in summary arrests and torture
of Albanians, and expelling Albanians. The Serbian
regime is also now settling Serbs in the region. This
region has the greatest potential for ethnic conflict in
all of Eastem Europe. If the Serbs attempt a similar
policy as that applied in Bosnia to its native Muslim
population, it is most likely that Albania will not
remain inactive.
Albanians in Macedonia and Kosovo
Directly across the border from Kosovo is Macedonia,
with a large Albanian population. In all Macedonia’s
western communes (counties), the Albanians form a
majority of the population. In those bordering Kosovo
and Albania (like Tetovo and Gostivar), Albanians
compose over 90 percent of the local population.
Because Albanians in Macedonia boycotted the last
census and because the ethnic Macedonians were sat-
isfied that they did, it is unclear as to the actual popu-
lation of ethnic Albanians in Macedonia itself. Having
traveled there in 1990, it was obvious that throughout
western Macedonia the Albanians form a distinct
majority, and in much of northem and central Mace-
donia they form a significant minority. Should a war
break out in Kosovo, it is doubtful that Macedonian
Albanians would not become involved. Refugees from
Kosovo would flee into Macedonia, which would be
intolerable to the Slavic Macedonians who already are
unhappy with their large Albanian population. Thus, a
war in Kosovo would probably lead to Albanian and
Macedonian involvement. Such a war has the poten-
tial to also drag in Greece and Turkey.
The Implications of Western Nonaction in Bosnia
and Herzegovina
The war in Bosnia and Herzegovina and in parts of
Croatia has destabilized the entire region. While some
may see this as only a local issue of those republics,
and, as such, not of vital interests to the United States
or its Western allies, others with more expertise and
experience in this region recognize the broader impli-
cations of this conflict. The situation of Muslims in
Serbia and Albanians in Kosovo and Macedonia has
worsened dramatically as a result of the Serbian poli-
cies in Croatia and Bosnia. It is not only Serbian
action but also the response by the West that has
added to the instability.
Fear of greater Serbian aggression is resulting in a rise
in anger among the Albanians throughout the region.
The “what if” scenarios are too numerous to discuss in
this paper because they depend on many other coun-
tries and issues. What is clear, however, is that Alba-
nians in Kosovo for the moment are resisting Serbian
attempts to get them to rise up and give the Serbs an
excuse to come in and smash them. In the event of a
real war, however, the violence in this region would
be far greater than that of Bosnia. On the one hand, the
Serbian attachment to Kosovo is far greater than that
to Bosnia, and, on the other hand, the Albanians are
not as traditionally docile as the Bosnian Muslims. In
addition, Kosovo borders an ethnically Albanian
nation-state.
The West’s general inaction in Bosnia has also played
a major role in creating greater destabilization. While
many Westerners close their eyes to the greater and
broader implications of this war, members of other
countries and regions have watched keenly. Two dis-
tinct issues must therefore be addressed: l) the prece-
dent set and its implications in Eastem Europe itself
Approved for Release: 2018/06/01 C00123268