Documents / FOIA release
This Central Intelligence Agency conference report, numbered RTT 95-10039 and dated October 1995, presents the proceedings of a conference held 30 September to 1 October 1993. The CIA's Geographic Resources Division sponsored the conference. In it, academic geographers, anthropologists and US Government officials examined ethnic conflict by region, covering Eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, Asia and South Asia. The report also discusses what these conflicts mean for US policy. It does not deal with UFOs or unidentified aerial phenomena.
“Terry”13 pages
Approved for Release: 2018/06/01 C00123268 demands for the return of territories deemed to be unjustly under the control of foreign groups or states, and those related to the liberation of coethnics living in exclave communities in neighboring countries or regions. In this first category, I include only those issues in which the Westem powers cannot or should not become involved, in spite of the fact that they may result in open warfare. In many of these, however, diplomatic discussion before the outbreak of hostili- ties may be useful. There are six potentially serious local conflicts that may arise in Eastem Europe that are based on ethnot- erritorial issues. These include both claims to territo- ries in other countries that are based on historical grievances and issues of national liberation of ethnic minorities living in someone else’s country. Four con- cem transborder peoples: 1) the Russian minorities in Ukraine and the Baltic states; 2) the Moldovan ques- tion, which includes both issues of ethnic rights for Russians and Ukrainians in Moldova and border issues between Ukraine and Romania; 3) a possible secessionist movement in western Ukraine; and 4) Hungarian minorities in neighboring Slovakia, Serbia, and Romania. Two involve minority issues: Muslim minorities living in the former Yugoslav lands and Bulgaria and ethnic 'I‘urkish minorities in the Balkans. Russians in Ukraine and the Baltic States The collapse of the USSR and the declaration of inde- pendence by the former non-Russian republics has left millions of Russians outside Russia. Their situation is debated both locally and in Russia and plays a major role in the current political relations of Russia and these states. In a few cases, the issue is not just cul- tural and ethnic. In the cases of Ukraine and Estonia, the Russian population has a significant presence on the border of Russia, and in those two cases (as with Kazakstan), Russian nationalists are demanding that these areas be reincorporated into Russia. In eastern Ukraine and eastern Estonia, this can be even more serious because these regions are major industrial areas vital to the economic well-being of these new republics. The situation of the Russians in Estonia is serious. I-Iere the Russian issue is not merely ethnic but also territorial. On the eastern margins of Estonia one finds a large Russian population. In the area north of Lake Peipus (Chudskoe Ozero in Russian) as far as the Bal- tic Sea, Russians fonn a clear majority of the popula- tion. Indeed, Narve is a Russian city in Estonia. There is a great potential for a Russian attempt to secede from Estonia and join Russia itself. This would lead to a great deal of conflict. Most of these Russians do not represent the descendants of early Russian immigrants to Estonia but rather part of the huge Russian popula- tion that arrived after World War II. In Latvia, Russians—when combined with Belorus- sians and Ukrainians—-account for slightly less than half the country's population. In Riga, Slavs far out- number native Latvians. In both Latvia and Estonia, as well as in neighboring Lithuania (where the Slavs compose only about 20 percent of the population), there is a fear that Russia may use the presence of these significant Russian minority populations as a pretext (i.e., a justification) to reincorporate these small countries into a new Russian-dominated state. In Estonia, Latvia, and-—to a lesser extent——Lithuania, local governments are devising various forms of legis- lation to induce the Russians to leave. Although it is reasonable for Estonians and Latvians to demand that citizens learn the local language and swear allegiance to those countries—-as all nations of the world demand allegiance to the new homeland to obtain citizen- ship—it is clear that the two states desire to get rid of the Russians. Open hostility toward or attacks upon Russians will provoke problems with Russia, so it is left to a game of politics. This could escalate into a serious conflict with Russia, especially if a Russian nationalist govemment arises in Moscow. Regardless of how this goes, it is clear that the United States and its Western allies cannot and should not do anything in the event of such a showdown. On the other hand, the West’s inaction in the Croatian and Bosnian conflict may play a great role in increasing hostilities and con- flicts in the Baltic region. This is discussed later in this paper. The Moldovan Question Upon declaring independence from the USSR, Mold- ova found itself in a unique position among the former 27 Approved for Release: 2018/06/01 C00123268
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 205 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.