(Estimated Pub Date) the Challenge of Ethnic Conflict to National and International Order in the 1990S: Geographic Perspectives- October 1995

Approved for Release: 2018/06/01 C00123268
events are distorted to provide a legitimacy for current
claims. The Greek claim to the name Macedonia is a
good example of the use of historical justification.
Reasons deal with actual situations related to actual
(or perceived) threats, actual security issues, or
attempts to redressrecent injustices that have resulted
in serious problems for a given people, nation, or
state. Justifications, on the other hand, are excuses
used to legitimize the desires or actions of one or
another group to achieve their own aims. A variety of
historical-—and more so folkloric-historical-—justifi-
cations, for example, have played a major role in Ser-
bia’s aggression against Croatia and Bosnia and
Herzegovina, and in Greece’s anti-Macedonian
stance. These two are deeply intertwined and explain
to a great extent Greece’s open support for Serbia in
the current conflict in Bosnia.
Potential for Ethnic Conflict in Eastern Europe
We can divide the current issues of ethnic conflict in
Eastern Europe into three categories. The first repre-
sents the least problematic situations where individual
groups request recognition of minority rights. These
are composed of individual ethnic groups that do not
threaten the territorial integrity of any nation or whose
demands or requests will not result in anything more
than local demonstrations (even violent ones) or pro-
tests. The second category is made up of those ethnic
issues that may result in some degree of violence or
even territorial changes that are of local importance
only (for instance, those that do not threaten greater
instability throughout the region) or those that are
quite serious but in which the Western Allies (or the
United States individually) should not become
involved. The last category represents those ethnic
issues that could lead to serious regional conflicts, to
major international conflict, or to major regional
destabilization that may require outside intervention.
Minority Rights Issues
Minority culture groups exist in every country in East-
em Europe. There are, for example, populations of
Jews and Roma (Gypsies) in every country. In addi-
tion, there are ethnic Germans in significant numbers
in Poland; the Czech, Slovak, and Croatian Republics;
Romania; and Hungary. Vlah communities exist in
various parts of former Yugoslavia, Albania, and
Greece.‘ In Latvia one also finds a territorially com-
pact group of Latgalians (Catholic Latvians who
speak a distinct dialect of the Latvian language)
around the city of Daugavpils. Similarly there are
Tatars in Romania, Bulgaria, and Moldova who have
begun to ally themselves with the Turks in Turkey. A
full listing of ethnic, cultural, and religious minorities
in the region is not useful because most are of little
importance other than in cultural contexts. These and
other cultural questions need not, and should not, be
given too much shrift by American policymakers.
In many cases, there are also small groups of one or
another nationality living in neighboring territories.
While those of the Russians, Serbs, and Hungarians in
neighboring countries present serious problems (albeit
to varying degrees), others do not. Although Slove-
nians in Slovenia hope that the Slovene minorities in
Italy, Hungary, and Austria will be treated fairly and
that support will be given to the survival of the Slov-
ene language and culture in those areas, there is little
chance that any major conflict will erupt involving
Slovenes in these countries in the near future. The
same can be said for the small colonies of Croats and
Serbs in Hungary, the Romanians in ‘border areas of
Bulgaria and Serbia, or the Poles in Belarus or
Ukraine.
Potentially Serious Conflicts on a Local Level
The second category of ethnic issues in the region
comprises situations that may lead to serious conflict
between two or more peoples within a country or
between neighboring states. This last group is repre-
sented by two types of issues: those related to
‘ The Vlahs are the descendants of Latinized Illyrians from the
coastal regions of Dalmatia (Latinized during the Roman period)
who maintained a nomadic or serninomadic way of life through the
mid-20th century. For the most part. they have been assimilated by
other Balkan nations, but communities of Vlahs still live in Greece,
Macedonia, Serbia, Albania, and Bosnia. These peoples should not
be confused with Romanians who migrated out of Wallachia into
bordering areas of Serbia and Bulgaria but who are also locally
called Vlahs (Vlasi). ,
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Approved for Release: 2018/06/01 C00123268