Documents / FOIA release
This Central Intelligence Agency conference report, numbered RTT 95-10039 and dated October 1995, presents the proceedings of a conference held 30 September to 1 October 1993. The CIA's Geographic Resources Division sponsored the conference. In it, academic geographers, anthropologists and US Government officials examined ethnic conflict by region, covering Eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, Asia and South Asia. The report also discusses what these conflicts mean for US policy. It does not deal with UFOs or unidentified aerial phenomena.
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Approved for Release: 2018/06/01 C00123268 Iraq, have endured violent ethnic strife in recent years. African states likewise are diverse, with clashes occuning particularly along the Sahelian fault zone between Arabic and Sub-Saharan cultures. For a vari- ety of reasons, few nations have emerged south of the Sahara. Extreme tribal and linguistic diversity charac- terizes most Sub-Saharan states. Nigeria contains more than 300 distinctive groups and Zaire more than 200. ' ' ' Diversity also characterizes the states of South Asia. India long has encountered secessionist movements in its northeastern and northwestem wings, and it has mounting troubles with its Sikh and Dravidian minori- ties. Pakistan already has lost Bangladesh and faces severe problems with Pathans, Sindhis, and Baluchis. Even a tiny state like Bhutan must contend with an 18- percent regional minority of Nepalese. Although the states of mainland and insular Southeast Asia are typified by well-developed dominant nations, each contains numerous minorities, some of which now are evolving into true minority nations. Burma, Indonesia, and the Philippines endure continuing strife in their outer areas. In contrast, East Asian states are remarkably homogeneous and calm, with the notable exception of China. Although 92 percent of its popula- tion may be considered members of the Chinese nation, the remaining 8 percent dominate more than 60 percent of its total territory. The Anglo-American, Latin-American, and Australa- sian states are notable for minimal minority problems. The chief exception is Québegois separatism in Can- ada. The indigenous population in many states of Latin America shows signs of restiveness, however, particularly in the Andean region and in Central America. Factors Aggravating or Ameliorating Ethnic Conflict The currently escalating frictions among nations within states can be ascribed to a number of factors, including the increasing media avenues for promoting nationalist views and the post-Cold War drying up of superpower funds that often were used by client states to appease or suppress troublesome minorities. Although a number of political geographers have addressed questions of ethnicity, they have not come up with a viable theory that would allow identification of what circumstances escalate diversity into conflict or prediction of when and where such conflict is likely to occur. This is not to say that they have not devel- oped interesting insights. One of the more useful theo- retical concepts that have been developed in recent years is that of “core-periphery” relationshipsl In many states the capital city and its surrounding area dominate the economy, politics, and culture of a coun- try. The American geographer Mark Jefferson observed this recurring regularity at the tum of the century and called it “The Law of the Primate City.” In core-periphery theory, the metropolitan center exploits peripheral areas, a high proportion of which differ from the dominant area in ethnicity and stan- dard of living. Although attractive for its seeming uni- versality, core-periphery theory proves to be of little use as a guide to specific problems. While its premise fits many states, it runs counter to the situation in many others. Thus, the peripheral areas of Catalonia and the Basque region long have dominated the econ- omy of Spain, and living standards in Alsace-Lorraine are higher than in most of the rest of France. Ethnic conflict is unpredictable. Each state situation constitutes a unique combination of differing groups, inherited traditions, and external circumstances. Although one may wish to see recurring regularities or scientific laws at work, there are simply too few eases that individually differ too much to permit an elabora- tion of theory comparable to that of the physical sci- ences. The unpredictability of1:onflict perhaps is best seen in the intemecine struggle in Somalia. Of all the states of Sub-Saharan Africa, intemal strife would seem least likely to occur in that country due to its homogeneity in language and religion. However, Somalia’s unique clan system has much in common with national diver- sity in Europe and elsewhere, and warfare between clans came on the heels of the failure of a highly cen- tralized, despotic regime. Despite the seeming impossibility of formulating a viable theory to examine potentials for ethnic conflict, 170 Approved for Release: 2018/06/01 C00123268
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 205 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.