(Estimated Pub Date) the Challenge of Ethnic Conflict to National and International Order in the 1990S: Geographic Perspectives- October 1995

Approved for Release: 2018/06/01 C00123268
the Baltic countries or the Germans in Eastern Europe
cannot necessarily be viewed as one group. Russian
and German migrations into these regions took place
over long periods of time, and those who came earlier
have distinctly different perspectives from those who
migrated during the past few decades.
Once the issue of defining ethnic groups has been
addressed, there is much to learn from a careful analy-
sis of group location and distribution. This can be seen
through an examination of the effects of different dis-
tributions at a large scale. As Marvin Mikesell and I
demonstrated in a recent article (Mikesell and Murphy
1991), the basic distribution of a minority group within
a state influences the types of demands the group is
likely to raise. We posited three scenarios (figure 1),
each involving a_ dominant group (A) that constitutes
90 percent of the population and a minority group (B)
that constitutes l0 percent of the population. In the first
scenario, group B is concentrated in one area within
the state. In the second scenario, group B is intermixed
with group A throughout the state territory. In the third
scenario, a significant portion of group B is concen-
trated in one territory, but many members of group B
live in other parts of the state. We went on to show that
if a minority group feels marginalized or repressed, in
the first scenario it is likely to make demands for sepa-
ration (S), autonomy (A), or even independence (I).
This was the case for the Basques in Franco’s Spain
and is still the case for the Tibetans in China. In the
second scenario, by contrast, the demands are likely to
be for recognition (r), access (a), and participation (p),
as exemplified by African-Americans in the United
States. The third scenario, which corresponds to the
situation of the French speakers of Canada, is likely to
yield a mixture of demands and a greater heterogeneity
of ethnic group aspirations.
An understanding of ethnic pattems at a variety of
scales can tell us much about the nature of conflict and
about the viability of proposals to ameliorate conflict.
Take the case of Bosnia, for example. Generalized eth-
nic distributions shown on large-scale maps became
the basis for the Vance-Owen plan to divide up the
country into discrete ethnic territories. A closer exami-
nation of ethnic patterns, however, reveals distribu-
tions that are much more nuanced than those reflected
in the Vance-Owen plan. Awareness of these, together
with some of the territorial issues that will be raised
later, helps explain the negative reactions that the plan
engendered. Similarly, a detailed understanding of the
distribution of Tamils in Sri Lanka sheds light on the
problems facing the Sinhalese-dominated govemment
in its efforts to quell separatist threats through the dev-
olution of power to regional governments. As regional
govemments grow in power, ethnically heterogeneous
administrative districts such as Puttalam and Ampara
increasingly become the focuses of conflict.
The forgoing examples suggest that a geographical
perspective on location involves more than simply
identifying where the members of ethnic groups live.
It is concerned with a group’s location in relation to
other physical and human phenomena of importance.
Analyzing a group’s “relative location” can provide
insight into the likelihood that one group will seek to
exert control over another, the opportunities and cata-
lysts for ethnic group mobilization, the strategies
employed by groups during times of overt conflict,
and the possibilities for a conflict to spill beyond state
boundaries. A brief examination of each of these
points is instructive.
Attempts by one ethnic group to exert control over
another often occur when one group lives in an area
that is highly prized by another (see, for instance,
a number of the essays in Johnston, Knight, and
Kofman I988). This is evident in the history of rela-
tions between dominant and minority groups in states
as diverse as Australia, Turkey, and France. In each
case, minorities concentrated in areas thought to have
little value or__importance were generally left alone or
ignored. Those living in areas of economic, military,
political, or cultural significance, however, often
encountered interference and domination by the
group in power, which in turn frequently led to
conflict. In making this point, it is important to stress
that the perceptual importance of an area is not simply
a function of its economic and strategic attributes;
places with great historical-cultural meaning or
political significance can become focuses of conflict
as well. Thus, the presence of Albanians in Kosovo
and of French speakers in the communes around
Brussels have generated serious discord because of
the historical-cultural significance of Kosovo to Ser-
bians and the political-cultural significance of the
communes around Brussels to Flemings.
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Approved for Release: 2018/06/01 C00123268