(Estimated Pub Date) the Challenge of Ethnic Conflict to National and International Order in the 1990S: Geographic Perspectives- October 1995

Approved for Release: 2018/06/01 C00123268
Ethnicity and Nationality in the
Middle East
Marvin W. Mikesell
Professor of Geography
University of Chicago
The Middle East, with its immense petroleum reserves
and unique role as a crossroads between Europe, Asia,
and Africa, is a region of manifest global importance.
It is also a region of inherentinstability. Tension, if
not open conflict, between states and among groups
within states is a persisting reality. Add extreme dis-
parity between wealth and poverty, numerous disputed
boundaries, the problems created by frustrated Pales-
tinian and Kurdish political-territorial aspirations, the
spreading influence of Islamic fundamentalism, and
the prevalence of nondemocratic govemments and it
is no wonder that the Middle East is perceived univer-
sally to be a region of contention and danger.
The Mirage of Arab Unity
It is ironic that a region blessedwith a high degree of
cultural unity should exhibit so much evidence of dis-
cord. Arabic is the official language of no less than
18 countries: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan,
Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco,
Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia,
United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. Moreover, with
the exception of Bahrain, Iraq, and Lebanon, Sunni
Muslims are the majority religious group in each of
these countries. This remarkable degree of linguistic
and religious commonality might have inspired a per-
vasive feeling of unity. In fact, the 18 Arab countries
have seldom been able to function as a geopolitical
bloc, and rivalry among prospective Pan-Arab leaders
has produced and doubtless will continue to produce
tension in the region. .
Attempts to merge various of the Arab states-—for
example, Egypt and Syria in the United Arab Republic
during 1958-61——have been sporadic and ephemeral.
Nor has any of the great cities of the region-—Cairo,
Damascus, and Baghdad—been able to function as a
Pan-Arab capital. Why thereiare l8 Arab countries
rather than one continues to be a perplexing question
for the people and contending monarchs and dictators
of the region. At the end of the Cold War—as was the
case at the end of the two world wars—most of the
countries of the Arab realm are anachronistic and, for
the most part, are arbitrary units of former empires.
Nevertheless, jealousy or suspicion of neighboring
states plus the ambition of state leaders has fostered
keen feelings of nationalism even in countries that had
only provincial or mandate status before their inde-
pendence.
“Turkistan”
A similar perplexing question must now be posed in
regard to Pan-Turkish aspirations. Before the breakup
of the USSR, the world had only one Turkish state-—
or two if we include the dubious “Turkish Republic of
Northern Cyprus.” With the independence of the
former Soviet Republics of Azerbaijan, Ttukmenistan,
Kazakstan, Kirgizstan, and Uzbekistan, there are five
additional ones. To date, concern about the character
of this enlarged realm and indeed of a “Turkistan” that
might include other Turkish-speaking peoples has
centered on practical issues such as what alphabet
should be used, economic reforms, and the efficacy of
secular or religious forms of government. The present
and potential influence of Russia, Turkey, Iran,
Afghanistan, and China in this vast area has invited
considerable speculation. It is possible that develop-
ments in “Turkistan” will be influenced by more spe-
cific ethnic interests. For example, it is easy to
imagine Azeri-speakers from Iran serving as volun-
teers in the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Conflict in Persian-speaking Tajikistan has already
encouraged participation by the well-armed Tajiks of
northern Afghanistan. Conflict elsewhere in Central
Asia could encourage participation by Turkmen from
Iran and Kazakhs and Uzbeks from Afghanistan or
even from China. The fact that the Turl<ish- and Per-
sian-speaking countries of the former Soviet Union all
have substantial minority groups complicates the pic-
ture considerably. From an American or European
perspective, Turkey’s aspiration to be a Western-ori-
ented role model for Central Asia has obvious appeal.
,
99
Approved for Release: 2018/06/01 C00123268