(Estimated Pub Date) the Challenge of Ethnic Conflict to National and International Order in the 1990S: Geographic Perspectives- October 1995

Approved for Release: 2018/06/01 C00123268
certain extent, differences in urban settlement pat-
terns, although a more fundamental cause of conflict is
over which group will control the national govem-
ment and gain the benefits that come from such con-
trol. East Indians and Afro-Americans are roughly
equally represented in Trinidad—43 percent Afro-
American, 40 percent East Indian. In Guyana the East
Indians comprise 51 percent of the population and
Creoles account for 44 percent; but, in Suriname, Cre-
oles make up only 31 percent of the population while
East Indians, Javanese, and Bush Negro account for
37 percent, l5 pe'rcent, and 10 percent, respectively.
Relations among East Indians and Creoles have been
particularly tense in Guyana, where politics has been
characterized by violence and conflict between mem-
bers of political parties that are strongly linked to eth-
nic groups. Cheddi Jagan was elected President of
Guyana in October 1992, ending more than 25 years
of Creole domination of the govemment. The election
was accompanied by riots and violent conflict among
members of the two dominant political parties, but the
situation seems to have stabilized since then. As long
as Jagan remains in power, he may be able to limit
ethnic conflict, especially if he is able to improve the
country’s depressed economic conditions and bring
better lives to both Creoles and East Indians. How-
ever, unless he is able to establish institutions that
break down longstanding ethnic differences, hostili-
ties may accompany the next election.
Other areas that might bear watching include Suriname
and the longstanding international dispute between
Haiti and the Dominican Republic. In the latter, racial
and cultural differences and a history ofconflict, com-
bined with Dominican concerns about migration of
land-hungry Haitians, has led to repeated expulsions of
Haitian migrants. However, Haitians have been wel-
comed at times when Dominican workers were unable
to meet the needfor agricultural labor in the country. If
large numbers of Haitians try to settle in Dominican
territory, there is always the possibility of another vio-
lent response on the part of-the Dominicans.
Conclusion
Probably the most common source of ethnic conflict
between Indians and the state, whether located in the
lowlands or highlands, is the dispute over control of
territory and mineral or biotic resources. Ethnic group
autonomy and greater participation in the political
system are often secondary factors in ethnic conflict.
The principal areas of current ethnic conflict are in the
Amazon Basin and other lowland areas where native
Indian populations confront expanding national states.
These conflicts involve small numbers of people, but
they are locally important and may have international
implications when they occur in border areas or if they
involve international environmental or cultural protec-
tion organizations or political or lending organizations
such as agenciesof the UN, the World Bank, and the
Interamerican Development Bank. Such local con-
flicts may cause problems for govemments in the
affected countries, and they will undoubtedly affect
the course of natural resources development.
Indian political action organizations are likely to
become increasingly more powerful in national poli-
tics. They will receive help from intemational organi-
zations with whom they share common interests. To
the extent that national governments accommodate the
demands of these organizations, they may reduce eth-
nic tensions. If ethnic interests are ignored, conflicts
are likely to develop, as in Mexico in 1994.
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Approved for Release: 2018/06/01 C00123268