Documents / FOIA release

(EST Pub Date) the Office of Scientific Intelligence, 1949-68- (Volume Three, Annexes Viii, Ix, and X)

Central Intelligence Agency · 1972-06-01 · 243 pages · text by GLM-OCR

This is Volume Three of the CIA Directorate of Science and Technology Historical Series on the Office of Scientific Intelligence (OSI), 1949 to 1968, written by Karl H. Weber in June 1972 and approved for release in 2008. It holds three annexes, on OSI publications, OSI's external assistance and contracting program, and OSI's interaction with the National Security Agency. The released text covers production planning, review boards, current intelligence periodicals and future threat forecasting. It does not discuss UFOs.

  • p. 12 # TOP SECRET By 1955, an OSI Research and Production Plan was in an advanced stage of…
  • p. 19 …Bloc capabilities in the scientific and technological frontier areas where unique advances of military or economic…
  • p. 22 …lead to new types of advanced weapons or otherwise affect the balance of power, was evident…
  • p. 34 …They now serve a 2-4 month period rather than the earlier 4-6 month period…
  • p. 47 …Chinese development of advanced weapons, much more space has been given in the Scientific Intelligence Digest…
  • p. 51 …of the Soviet satellite program had been reported and evaluated well in advance of the launching.
  • p. 86 …that the hope of emerging nations to attain advanced status hinged largely on the development of…
  • p. 141 …As scientific intelligence has become more involved in advanced technical detail, the use of consultants to…
  • p. 181 …funds too far in advance. XI. Administrative Problems By FY 1957, the OSI external support program…
  • p. 187 …systematically to information on the USSR to determine whether future advances in specific fields were probable…

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production of estimates related to Soviet nuclear energy was another attempt to broaden these estimates. It was further felt that the Board was well equipped to "assay the needs of the policy maker" and could provide valuable editorial assistance. The following specific recommendations of the DDI were thus proposed and adopted; albeit not without resistance from the then Chairman of JAEIC:

1) The JAEIC and the Board of National Estimates should prepare terms of reference.

2) The draft of the NIE should be prepared by the JAEIC with the assistance of the military, economic, and political components of the various IAC (now USIB) agencies.

3) Prior to submission to the IAC, the draft estimate was to be reviewed by the "Webster Panel" (a panel established by the DCI to deal with the methodology of arriving at atomic energy estimates) and by the Board of National Estimates. Any differences were to be arbitrated at a joint meeting of the Board, the JAEIC, and the Panel.

Throughout the 1950-55 period, atomic energy estimates were almost entirely devoted to estimates of Soviet capabilities, although there was some participation in non-Soviet estimates.

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About this file

FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. The text was read from the page images by GLM-OCR; expect the odd misread word. 243 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.