Documents / FOIA release

(EST Pub Date) the Office of Scientific Intelligence, 1949-68- (Volume Three, Annexes Viii, Ix, and X)

Central Intelligence Agency · 1972-06-01 · 243 pages · text by GLM-OCR

This is Volume Three of the CIA Directorate of Science and Technology Historical Series on the Office of Scientific Intelligence (OSI), 1949 to 1968, written by Karl H. Weber in June 1972 and approved for release in 2008. It holds three annexes, on OSI publications, OSI's external assistance and contracting program, and OSI's interaction with the National Security Agency. The released text covers production planning, review boards, current intelligence periodicals and future threat forecasting. It does not discuss UFOs.

  • p. 12 # TOP SECRET By 1955, an OSI Research and Production Plan was in an advanced stage of…
  • p. 19 …Bloc capabilities in the scientific and technological frontier areas where unique advances of military or economic…
  • p. 22 …lead to new types of advanced weapons or otherwise affect the balance of power, was evident…
  • p. 34 …They now serve a 2-4 month period rather than the earlier 4-6 month period…
  • p. 47 …Chinese development of advanced weapons, much more space has been given in the Scientific Intelligence Digest…
  • p. 51 …of the Soviet satellite program had been reported and evaluated well in advance of the launching.
  • p. 86 …that the hope of emerging nations to attain advanced status hinged largely on the development of…
  • p. 141 …As scientific intelligence has become more involved in advanced technical detail, the use of consultants to…
  • p. 181 …funds too far in advance. XI. Administrative Problems By FY 1957, the OSI external support program…
  • p. 187 …systematically to information on the USSR to determine whether future advances in specific fields were probable…

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## TOP SEGRET

## III. Estimative Intelligence Reporting

## A. National Estimates

National estimates, those community-coordinated reports which attempt to assess a foreign nation's intentions, future policies, or capabilities, are the most important finished intelligence product of the intelligence community. From its earliest days, OSI has been heavily involved in the production of these estimates.

Inasmuch as estimates are the result of community participation, OSI's participation has generally been through normal community mechanisms, i.e., the SIC, JAEIC, and GMAIC of USIB. In the early days of OSI's existence, however, OSI produced estimates in two quite separate ways. One path was for estimates that related to the field of atomic energy. These were processed through JAEIC (then a subcommittee of the SIC) to the IAC (now USIB) without ONE participation. For all other types of estimates, the path was from OSI through the SIC and later GMAIC mechanisms to ONE and subsequently to USIB.

## 1. Nuclear Estimates

Among the most important early OSI production were the early estimates of Soviet nuclear capabilities. These estimates were produced independently of the normal NIE mechanism and to a great extent independently of the

TOP SECRET

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About this file

FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. The text was read from the page images by GLM-OCR; expect the odd misread word. 243 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.