Documents / FOIA release
This is Volume Three of the CIA Directorate of Science and Technology Historical Series on the Office of Scientific Intelligence (OSI), 1949 to 1968, written by Karl H. Weber in June 1972 and approved for release in 2008. It holds three annexes, on OSI publications, OSI's external assistance and contracting program, and OSI's interaction with the National Security Agency. The released text covers production planning, review boards, current intelligence periodicals and future threat forecasting. It does not discuss UFOs.
“Headquarters”3 pages
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scientific and technical literature. But the possible implications of any piece of such information are usually so broad that they do not seem to provide a basis for specific forecasts. Recognition of this problem prompted the recommendation that possibilities for deductive methods be examined. A deductive method would consist of postulating a specific Soviet threat, then determining what work would be required for the Soviets to produce the threat and, finally, comparing the resulting data with available Soviet scientific-technical information to assess the probability that the postulated threat is real. Examination of methods used for technological forecasting in U.S. industry showed promise that some of these methods might be usefully adapted for future threat forecasting.
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. The text was read from the page images by GLM-OCR; expect the odd misread word. 243 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.