Air Intelligence Report No. 100-203-79

Read from the scan by GLM-OCR; expect the odd misread word.

ANALYSIS OF FLYING OBJECT INCIDENTS IN THE U.S.

AND HYPOTHETICAL TACTICS EMPLOYED

1. INTRODUCTION. To formulate the possible tactics of flying objects reported over the U. S. assumes from the outset that firm conclusions have been reached on both the existence and origin of the reported flying objects. The current status of information on such incidents and over-all analysis does not allow substantiation for such conclusions. However, the lack of such firm conclusions points to the necessity for an immediate and sound statistical analysis of every aspect of the situation and does not preclude a concurrent examination of the reported Incidents to develop explanations of their possible tactics. The latter will be useful at some future date should the existence and origin of the flying objects be definitely established. Therefore, the following analysis of available information is advanced in order to present evidence on the actual existence of some type flying object and to relate same to tactical purposes for which the objects are possibly designed. The following discussion must be considered a provisional analysis, pending a further detailed analysis of all aspects of the problem.

2. SOME ASPECTS REGARDING FLYING OBJECT INCIDENTS. A cursory examination of evidence on reported incidents has been made and it is possible to cite certain generalities which it appears may be borne out when detailed analyses have been completed.

Among the incidents reported there are many statements by reliable and experienced persons which tend to confirm that flying objects have been seen. The description of such objects seems to fall roughly into three categories: (1) Silver disks or balls, approximating a Horten wing type aircraft; (2) Balls of fire of various colors and intensities; (3) Cigar or pencil-shaped objects similar in appearance to V-2 type rockets in horizontal flight. The numbers of configurations might be further reduced with the following considerations in mind: Silver disks or balls have, for the greater part, been observed in daylight and a number under clear weather conditions with visibility unlimited. In most instances, balls of fire have been observed at night. Cigar, or pencil-shaped objects have been sighted in fewer numbers but with about equal distribution in daylight and at night. A few accounts tell of the disks having a rough cigar-shape when viewed while maneuvering. Some of the disks are described as having luminosity in daylight. It therefore is possible that a single type of object may be involved in all sightings, and differences in description may result from viewing the objects at various angles and under differing conditions of visibility.

The above tends to indicate that some type object has been seen and the possibility exists that the object or objects seen are conventional domestic devices, such as weather balloons, test rockets, or jet-equipped aircraft with pancake or flying wing configurations.

The possibility exists that the reporting of flying objects may have been influenced by earlier reports on similar incidents in Scandinavia and Central Europe. The publication in newspaper of details on such incidents, both foreign and domestic, may have induced some of the description provided in reported domestic incidents. However, one of the earliest reported sightings in the U.S. was the one observed by U.S. Weather Bureau personnel in April 1947, at Richmond, Virginia, and on the basis of this one report it appears that the disks are not balloons. It would seem that this sighting was not influenced by the reports of foreign incidents, the newspaper accounts of domestic incidents, nor by misidentification of a conventional object.