Mt. Etna Object Case Resolution

UNCLASSIFIED
• The object did not exhibit anomalous speeds or other behavior exceeding known state-of-
the-art performance characteristics. It did not pass through the volcano’s ash plume.
Performance Characteristics
Object Speed: AARO assessed that the object’s speed was approximately 39 kph (24 mph),
moving generally west-to-east, consistent with wind speed and direction. The object’s apparent
high speed is attributable to motion parallax. Motion parallax is an optical effect that induces an
observer to perceive that a stationary or slow-moving object is moving much faster than its
actual speed when viewed from a moving frame of reference. The more quickly an observer
moves relative to an observed object, the more pronounced this effect is. The UAS platform’s
relative motion made the object appear to move at high speeds.
Object Flight Path: AARO estimated the object's distance from the UAS platform by
comparing its speed, the cloud deck’s apparent motion, and the wind speed to plot its trajectory.
Applying this methodology, AARO created a model that accurately predicted the object’s
location later in the video, validating the conclusion that the object moved at wind speed and
heading. (Figure 1) This predictive model aligned with the findings of an independent 3-D model
produced by an AARO partner, further validating the methodology.
(UNCLASSIFIED)
(UNCLASSIFIED)
Figure 1: Predictive trajectory analysis revealed the object’s position when it was visually
undetectable. Pixel examination using post-processing filters rendered the object visible,
validating this approach.
Apparent Anomalous Material Properties: AARO applied comprehensive full-motion video
(FMV) analysis, 3-D modeling, pixel examination, and wind speed calculations to assess that the
object was much closer to the SWIR sensor than initially reported. The object did not pass
through the volcano’s ash plume. The object was approximately 170 kilometers (106 miles)
away from the plume during the recording. AARO conducted a comprehensive FMV analysis to
conclude that the object was approximately 30 km (19 miles) from the SWIR sensor. (Figure 2)
AARO also applied kinematics and photogrammetry techniques to develop a 3-D model of the
event.
2
UNCLASSIFIED