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These slides accompanied a presentation by Dr. Jon Kosloski, Director of the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO), to the Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities in November 2024. They cover UAP reporting trends from 1996 to October 2024, including altitudes, reported shapes, hotspots and how closed cases were resolved, with balloons making up 75 percent. They also present three case resolutions. AARO found that the 2013 Puerto Rico object and the 2016 GO FAST object showed no anomalous flight characteristics. It assessed that the 2018 Mt. Etna object was a balloon.
“Etna”1 page
UNCLASSIFIED ALL-DOMAIN ANOMALY RESOLUTION OFFICE (AARO) MT. ETNA OBJECT Event: In 2018, a U.S. UAV flying over the Mediterranean Sea observed an eruption by Italy’s Mt. Etna, capturing video of a potential UAP seemingly passing through the volcano's plume with no apparent impact to its performance, altitude and bearing. Findings: AARO, in coordination with IC and S&T partners, assesses with moderate confidence that the object was a balloon drifting with the wind approximately 170 kilometers from the volcano. Analytic Factors: Coordinated analysis employed full-motion video analysis software, 3D modeling, pixel examination — as well as novel speed and distance calculation techniques — to reach this conclusion. The estimated distance between the UAP and the UAV is based on weather analysis of the cloud deck and wind speeds. AARO and its partners disproved the object flew through the ash plume by conducting an analysis of the luminosity of the object’s pixels in relation to a sample range of pixels immediately around it. To validate the estimated UAP speed and bearing, 3D modeling and wind calculations were used to estimate the UAP’s location when the UAV operator lost sight of it. Subsequent video analysis found faint tones of the UAP where the modeling assessed it would traverse, further validating the findings. 6UNCLASSIFIED
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