Al Taqaddum Case Resolution

UNCLASSIFIED
2
UNCLASSIFIED
Performance Characteristics
Object Altitude, Flight Path, and Speed: AARO assesses with moderate confidence that the
object’s altitude was between 850-2,200 feet and that the object was moving at 4-14 miles per
hour (mph), due to the variability in both historical and real-time wind data. AARO assesses
with high confidence that the object was traveling within range of wind speed in an east-to-west
direction using locational data from the blimp.
Observable Characteristics and Attribution
Shape: The shapes of fully and partially inflated balloons—as well as dangling strings—are
visible in several instances in the video. The dangling strings’ shape and number change, which
would be consistent with a cluster of balloons changing position relative to the sensor’s point of
view. The fluctuating IR return of the object is a result of the sensor constantly adjusting to
assign grayscale values to every pixel, which maximizes the visual dynamic range in a diverse
and changing background.
Attribution: AARO assesses with high confidence that the object is consistent with a cluster of
fully and partially inflated balloons due to the object’s altitude, flight path, speed, and observed
shape.
Data Quality and Methodology: AARO assesses that the visual and sensor data associated
with the object provides sufficiently detailed information to resolve this case with high
confidence.
Sensor Effects and Limitations: The video is somewhat grainy, becoming increasingly grainy
toward the end of the clip, which is likely due to the object’s increasing distance from the sensor.
Alternative Hypothesis
One of AARO’s partners theorized that the object could be a quadrotor Unmanned Aerial System
(UAS) draped in camouflage netting, though this theory is unlikely for two reasons:
• Movement: A quadrotor UAS would be unlikely to drift with the wind, as this object
does.
• Heat signature: The motors of a quadrotor UAS would generate heat visible to an IR
sensor, and the video does not indicate the presence of such heat sources.
Therefore, AARO and its partners discarded this theory, concurring that the object was unlikely
to have been a quadrotor UAS and was more likely a cluster of fully and partially inflated
balloons.